As an undergraduate student in the early 1990s, I was privileged to be taught by a history professor who made the astute observation that political revolutions are fundamentally “revolutions of rising expectations” and that history often affords second chances. Her position was that people do not often resort to violence when circumstances are at their lowest, or, when difficulties first arise.
Uprisings take place when a situation has improved but fails to progress at an expected rate, or, when things get worse unexpectedly. In short, revolutions happen when optimistic citizens still believe there are adults in the room, but then experience secondary confirmation that the wizard behind the economic or political curtain is either incompetent or powerless.
Evidence of this political powerlessness can be found in the UN’s FAO Food Price Index, which is 12.6 percent higher than it was in February, taking the basket of commodities to its highest point ever. Even in the run-up to 2008 and on the eve of the Arab Spring in 2011, the broad index never hit this point.
To highlight the impact of food prices on social instability, and the degree to which second chances come around, one need only examine the incidents of riots and protests in 2008 compared to 2011.
What is obvious in hindsight is that the political instability that took place in 2008 did not occur with a great deal of frequency, and — as we now know — did not dramatically shatter political and economic orders around the world. This was a first chance for governments. But what we saw in 2011, were the results of a second chance being missed. Between the food price highs of 2008 and the Arab Spring, there was a palpable sense of relief among poorer people who labor under tight budgets around the world.
I personally recall my Cairo doorman — a man certainly earning less than $100 per month at the time — being quite content with the global financial crisis as it meant that food would be cheaper. I also remember watching and writing about the Cairo protests of 2008 and seeing that the protesters were quite tame and clearly outnumbered by the police. That governments in the Middle East and North Africa and elsewhere in the world ignored their second chance opportunity in the three years prior to 2011 speaks volumes in hindsight about ego, incompetence, disinterest, and perhaps misplaced optimism.
Over the last two years we have experienced COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, unemployment, and a rather serious supply shock. While measures were taken to mitigate these issues in the developed world, I am not at all sure the majority of people — in America, or the developing world — view recent policy measures as having fundamentally improved their lives. Now, more than two years since the start of the health crisis, they are being asked to tolerate further hardship. They are being asked to endure shockingly high food price inflation and perhaps rising unemployment as central banks raise interest rates.
Frankly, political instability should not be surprising. A month ago, the first protests erupted in Albania. Fuel prices had increased by 40 percent in a single week. Earlier this month, five people were killed in Peru during riots as fuel and fertilizer prices spiked due to Russia’s war with Ukraine. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan was also forced from office this month. In Sri Lanka, protesters have begun to call for the resignation of President Gotobaya Rajapaksa. Iraq too has seen protests over food in recent days as both Turkey and Iran have reduced their exports to satisfy domestic demand.
This is a much more dangerous situation than either 2008 or 2011. The US saw inflation hit 8.5 percent in March and I suspect that the coming social instability will not be limited to the developing world. First world governments had their first chance to deal with the pandemic — often poorly — but nonetheless expectations improved as the world came out of lockdown and the unemployment that came with it. Now, food and fuel are becoming unaffordable for the poor. In short, if rising expectations are dashed, we may be in for a long, hot summer in the US and Europe.
• John W. Salevurakis is an associate professor of economics at the American University in Cairo and an author.
