Although the current rising trend in terrorist attacks is appalling in its barbarity and is totally alien to the western world at which it is targeted, the battle being played out is not new.
The 9/11 terror attacks in the United States led to the growth of terrorism. Yet, it could be argued that these extremists were not suddenly created in a vacuum, but already existed and these events just brought them to the surface.
Like any other brand, publicity is the oxygen that fuels the fire of terrorist organizations, and tourists have become the soft targets, providing the fertile ground that raises their profile. To these groups, tourists are the enemy on their doorstep and easy prey. In many cases, tourists are seen as presenting a neo-colonialist symbol of western society and western lifestyles, so by attacking them, they see themselves as attacking the foundations of liberal democracy and Western society.
The media is also significantly more reactive when the targets are western tourists, partly because they are westerners, and partly because the West is home to a number of the media giants.
To understand how tourists and markets respond to terrorism, researchers have attempted to understand the way that these attacks generate fear so that they can predict the impact on international travel behavior. It is important to be able to understand this, because tourism is big business. Although tourism has shown great resilience, the impact of 9/11 on the volume of tourist arrivals to the US was unprecedented, and it took four years to recover from the attack. It is difficult to untangle the effect of the fear generated by the attack and the economic recession that followed in its wake.
In the wake of 9/11, world tourism was subjected to the Bali bombing of 2002, which impacted tourism in that region for around 15 months and, once the region started to recover, was followed by another attack in 2005, which again created a significant effect in the volume of arrivals and spending.
In spite of these events, Bali tourism started to show signs of recovery within the following year. The recent terrorist attacks — in Tunisia, the downing of the Russian Charter flight in Egypt, at the Brussels Airport and in Nice — have several aspects in common. The perpetrators claimed to be religiously motivated, targeted civilians and aimed to maximize fatalities.
Recent research suggests that the impact of terrorist attacks on the flow of international tourist arrivals could vary considerably. An attack could create a sudden fall, followed by a quick recovery; a sudden fall, followed by a gradual recovery; a sudden fall in the number of arrivals leading to a permanent reduction in tourist flows; a slowdown in the growth of arrivals; or no impact at all. In simple terms, the findings suggest that no two terrorist attacks leave the same “data fingerprint” in the volume of arrivals.
The impact depends not only on the attack’s attributes, but also on the destination. Developing countries suffer greater than their industrialized counterparts, with the former suffering severe economic downturns compared to the effects on industrialized economies. This is because tourism often plays a pivotal role in developing economies, like Egypt and Tunisia, compared to France or Belgium; the lack of economic diversity in developing countries means that the downturn of the tourism industry and its effect on the agriculture, energy and transport sectors creates widespread economic harm.
Insecurity hinders tourism development and the lack of tourism development generates widespread insecurity through its economic pressures. Therefore, a downturn in tourism lowers income levels and exacerbates foreign exchange shortages, creating budget deficits for national governments that result in poorer service levels and support for those out of work and living in poverty. This downward economic spiral increases discontent, diminishes “hope,” generates resentment and creates an environment ripe for the recruitment of the disenfranchised youth into militant groups (fight) or migration (flight).
In 2015, Travelzoo found that 75 percent of British holidaymakers said they would avoid traveling to Muslim countries following the attack in Tunisia (based on a survey of 2,000 households). This result shows the importance of sociocultural differences between the tourists and their host population in determining the impact of terrorist attacks.
Over the past 18 months, terrorist attacks have created a new chapter in this horror story. The attacks have spread outside the confines of conflict areas such as Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia to mainland Europe. This new phase presents a paradox. The danger here is that this new reality creates an upward spiral where terrorist groups have to constantly step up the horror factor of attacks in order to achieve their aims.
Targets are no longer confined to tourists enjoying their vacation in some exotic location; they are wherever there are crowds of people, tourists or locals. The perpetrators may not be terrorists avoiding detection as they enter the country’s borders, they may be the “neighbor” that regularly walks down the street where the next attack may take place.
The impact that this new form of terrorism will have on tourism destinations is very hard to predict.
While tourism activities in conflict areas of the Middle East and North Africa dry up like the desert sands, the tourism destinations in the “safe” havens of Europe and other regions of the world become increasingly attractive as targets to the terrorist groups.
—
In partnership with The Mark News.
The 9/11 terror attacks in the United States led to the growth of terrorism. Yet, it could be argued that these extremists were not suddenly created in a vacuum, but already existed and these events just brought them to the surface.
Like any other brand, publicity is the oxygen that fuels the fire of terrorist organizations, and tourists have become the soft targets, providing the fertile ground that raises their profile. To these groups, tourists are the enemy on their doorstep and easy prey. In many cases, tourists are seen as presenting a neo-colonialist symbol of western society and western lifestyles, so by attacking them, they see themselves as attacking the foundations of liberal democracy and Western society.
The media is also significantly more reactive when the targets are western tourists, partly because they are westerners, and partly because the West is home to a number of the media giants.
To understand how tourists and markets respond to terrorism, researchers have attempted to understand the way that these attacks generate fear so that they can predict the impact on international travel behavior. It is important to be able to understand this, because tourism is big business. Although tourism has shown great resilience, the impact of 9/11 on the volume of tourist arrivals to the US was unprecedented, and it took four years to recover from the attack. It is difficult to untangle the effect of the fear generated by the attack and the economic recession that followed in its wake.
In the wake of 9/11, world tourism was subjected to the Bali bombing of 2002, which impacted tourism in that region for around 15 months and, once the region started to recover, was followed by another attack in 2005, which again created a significant effect in the volume of arrivals and spending.
In spite of these events, Bali tourism started to show signs of recovery within the following year. The recent terrorist attacks — in Tunisia, the downing of the Russian Charter flight in Egypt, at the Brussels Airport and in Nice — have several aspects in common. The perpetrators claimed to be religiously motivated, targeted civilians and aimed to maximize fatalities.
Recent research suggests that the impact of terrorist attacks on the flow of international tourist arrivals could vary considerably. An attack could create a sudden fall, followed by a quick recovery; a sudden fall, followed by a gradual recovery; a sudden fall in the number of arrivals leading to a permanent reduction in tourist flows; a slowdown in the growth of arrivals; or no impact at all. In simple terms, the findings suggest that no two terrorist attacks leave the same “data fingerprint” in the volume of arrivals.
The impact depends not only on the attack’s attributes, but also on the destination. Developing countries suffer greater than their industrialized counterparts, with the former suffering severe economic downturns compared to the effects on industrialized economies. This is because tourism often plays a pivotal role in developing economies, like Egypt and Tunisia, compared to France or Belgium; the lack of economic diversity in developing countries means that the downturn of the tourism industry and its effect on the agriculture, energy and transport sectors creates widespread economic harm.
Insecurity hinders tourism development and the lack of tourism development generates widespread insecurity through its economic pressures. Therefore, a downturn in tourism lowers income levels and exacerbates foreign exchange shortages, creating budget deficits for national governments that result in poorer service levels and support for those out of work and living in poverty. This downward economic spiral increases discontent, diminishes “hope,” generates resentment and creates an environment ripe for the recruitment of the disenfranchised youth into militant groups (fight) or migration (flight).
In 2015, Travelzoo found that 75 percent of British holidaymakers said they would avoid traveling to Muslim countries following the attack in Tunisia (based on a survey of 2,000 households). This result shows the importance of sociocultural differences between the tourists and their host population in determining the impact of terrorist attacks.
Over the past 18 months, terrorist attacks have created a new chapter in this horror story. The attacks have spread outside the confines of conflict areas such as Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia to mainland Europe. This new phase presents a paradox. The danger here is that this new reality creates an upward spiral where terrorist groups have to constantly step up the horror factor of attacks in order to achieve their aims.
Targets are no longer confined to tourists enjoying their vacation in some exotic location; they are wherever there are crowds of people, tourists or locals. The perpetrators may not be terrorists avoiding detection as they enter the country’s borders, they may be the “neighbor” that regularly walks down the street where the next attack may take place.
The impact that this new form of terrorism will have on tourism destinations is very hard to predict.
While tourism activities in conflict areas of the Middle East and North Africa dry up like the desert sands, the tourism destinations in the “safe” havens of Europe and other regions of the world become increasingly attractive as targets to the terrorist groups.
—
In partnership with The Mark News.
