SO far, the American administration has been committed to the strategy of preventing Iran from going nuclear. In his most recent visit to Israel, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said, “We will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, period. We will not allow them to develop a nuclear weapon, and we will exert all options in the effort to ensure that that does not happen.”
As Israel has been pounding the drums of war against Iran, the American administration seems not to be on the same page. President Barack Obama seeks to give diplomacy a chance before acting. On Monday, Leon Panetta sent a clear message to the Israeli leadership confirming that economic sanctions and diplomacy to be given the chance to work before the military option is considered.
Unlike the Israeli government, the American administration still believes that the imposed economic sanctions have been effective. The Iranian readiness to engage in a dialogue with the six world powers a sign of weakness. In all rounds of talks Iranians sought sanctions to be lifted. If anything, this indicates that the Iranian economy has been hit hard by the tough Western sanctions.
It is hard to avoid the observation that there are some differences between Israel and the United States with regard to the Iranian ambitious nuclear program. And yet, the American administration wants Israel to trust the United States. An Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities may open the Pandora box and Washington is not ready to pick up the pieces. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argues that Iran must be kept from holding huge quantities of enriched uranium lest it go nuclear. He also argues that Iran should be deprived of triggers and missiles that can help Iran in its bid to go nuclear.
For Netanyahu and perhaps all Israelis, a nuclear Iran means an existential threat that Israel cannot coexist with. Some Israelis have been arguing that Washington may shift its strategy from prevention to deterrence. A nuclear Iran, they argue, is just one challenge to the United States and the latter can resort to the strategy of deterrence. For this reason, they never stopped talking about the necessity of a military strike in order to put pressure on Washington and the West.
On the other hand, although the United States is committed to the strategy of prevention, it does not share with Israel the sense of urgency. In Panetta’s view, the international community still has enough time to force Iran into submission without necessarily resorting to the military option.
Nonetheless, American insistence that Iran cannot get the weapon is not assuring for Israeli leaders. Israelis make a difference between Iran getting the weapon and Iran getting the capability to make it. Far from being complacent, Israeli leaders will not rest assured while the international community is still grappling with diplomacy and sanctions.
While viewing the Iranian menacing nuclear attitude as something linked to Israel alone is misleading. Iran has posed a threat to the Gulf security and the Gulf countries will suffer should Iran go nuclear. The most recent changes in Saudi intelligence agency that put Prince Bandar bin Sultan at the helm of the Saudi intelligence are indicative. As a holder of the balance of power in the Gulf region, Riyadh will not be rest assured while Iran is defying the world on the nuclear program. The appointment of Prince Bandar with his exceptional skills and knowledge of decision making has scared the Iranians as well as the Syrians.
In light of the threat posed by Iran in the region, soon key states in the Middle East will be looking at the White House to do something. The American administration is aware of the situation and cannot let down its allies in the region. The Western powers need to step in and deter Iran. Failure to do so may lead to inadvertent war in the region with grave consequences for all. In brief, if Iran keeps on with its current evasive strategy and stonewalling, the military showdown will be a matter of when and not if. Panetta’s visit to Israel was designed to gain the trust of the Israelis, and if Iran wants to avert a catastrophic military confrontation in the region, it must act as a responsible player in the politics of the region.
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