US President Donald Trump has twice in a month repeated a claim that Iran’s regional behavior has changed in a good way. Trump sees the changes as a direct impact of his decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal. 

Trump has invited the Iranians for a new round of negotiations aimed at agreeing a better and more comprehensive agreement. He has emphasized his hope for striking a better deal when America’s harsh economic sanctions bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table. 

There is no doubt that the only reason the Iranian regime remains obligated to the nuclear accord is the hope that the Europeans may find a solution to ease the US sanctions. Any changes in Iran’s behavior may have been seen only by Trump because the people of the region have a different view. From Lebanon to Iraq and Syria, Iran’s footprints are as strong as before and, even now, Tehran isn’t shy in attributing its direct involvements. 

Some people in the region believe that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was angry and upset at Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal, so he shifted Iran’s regional policy with the aim of taking revenge on the US and its allies, no matter what economic hardships the new sanctions put on ordinary Iranians. 

It may be that Trump wants to pretend the Iranians have changed their regional behavior, which reminds us of carrot and stick diplomacy, but we are not yet sure if the regime is tempted by the US president’s talks proposal. 

In the region, many people have fresh memories of Iran troubling US troops in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein, with the assistance of the Mahdi Army, which back in 2004 was led by Muqtada Al-Sadr when he was a fiery young pro-Iran rebel leader. However, despite Al-Sadr’s current anti-Iranian posturing and claiming to be close to the Sunni Arab countries, his post-election position seems to still be in favor of Iran.

Yemen is a secondary consideration for the Iranian regime; it has used the Houthis as a tool to irritate its regional competitor, Saudi Arabia

Camelia Entekhabifard

 Al-Sadr’s recent plan to merge with Hadi Al-Ameri, the leader of the Badr Organization and Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi, to form a coalition government is indicative of the Iranians’ deep and influential involvement in Iraq.

When Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani commented on the recent parliamentary elections in Lebanon, he described Hezbollah as the true winner. He added that the party had developed to become “a resistance state in Lebanon.”

In return, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri fired back: “We would have liked to have state-to-state relations (with Iran) and, if some have lost in Iraq, it does not mean they should seek to compensate for this loss somewhere else.” But, in reality, Iran has not lost in Iraq or in Lebanon. 

Yemen is a secondary consideration for the Iranian regime; it has used the Houthis as a tool to irritate its regional competitor, Saudi Arabia.

And lastly, in Syria, the Iranian presence near the Israeli border has suddenly calmed down. In my opinion, the reason for this was not Iranian weakness or an unwillingness to confront Israel. I believe the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has a calculated strategy that leads it to stay away from Israel, as it could risk losing all its regional achievements by taking part in an open confrontation with Tel Aviv. 

Iran taking a step back from the southwestern border of Syria was a strategic move, not a consequence of Trump’s pulling out of the nuclear deal.

It is too soon for Tehran to accept the carrot of talks with the White House. The IRGC has one eye on the US negotiations with North Korea and another on the Europeans’ economic assistance before it takes a final decision about the nuclear deal and comprehensive talks with Trump. 

  •  Camelia Entekhabifard is an Iranian-American journalist, political commentator and author of “Camelia: Save Yourself by Telling the Truth” (Seven Stories Press, 2008). Twitter: @CameliaFard