I WRITE this week from Salt Lake City, the capital of the state of Utah and the seat of the Mormon Church and home to its splendid treasures. Beside its stunning natural beauty, Utah is known for being very conservative, socially and politically. It votes overwhelmingly Republican. In the last election, Republican candidate John McCain got 63 percent of the vote, while George W. Bush got 80 percent in 2004.

These days, the presidential contest has shifted into high gear as I noticed from the day I arrived in the US a few weeks ago. In particular, Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, is picking up speed and going on the offensive while crisscrossing the country over the past weeks and now flying overseas (to the UK, Israel and the West Bank this week).

As I traveled from California to Nevada, I noticed lively campaign activity, but in neighboring Utah there is very little such activity. It seems as if the Democrats have conceded, for now at least, this traditionally Republican state to the other camp, while Republicans are taking it for granted and feel that there is no need for active campaigning. The assumption is that Utah would vote Republican out of loyalty to a fellow Mormon, regardless of anything else. As you may have noticed this year, Mormons have been in the news more often, because Mitt Romney, if elected, would be the first Mormon ever to hold presidential office. In addition, people in Salt Lake City still remember his positive role in running the Salt Lake City Olympics of 2004.

While Romney is known as a prominent businessman and governor of Massachusetts, little is known outside the US about his religious affiliation because he rarely talks about it during the campaign. Those who are aware that he belongs to the Mormon Church may not know that he had been a high-ranking church official, sometimes controversial, before joining the world of politics.

Romney worked as a young Mormon missionary abroad for 30 months. Later in his life, he returned to work in the church as a bishop in Boston, and later as president of the Mormon stake in Boston. After leaving the stake president position, Romney taught Sunday school and oversaw the church’s programs for teenagers. He is still an observant Mormon, reportedly giving tithe to the church and refraining from alcohol, tea or coffee. During his religious career, he was known for conservative views on social issues, sometimes alienating young and troubled followers of the faith who crossed paths with him, as is made clear by their testimonials that are coming out these days.

A while ago, Romney’s chances of winning the presidency were seen as remote, not because of his conservative views and Mormon faith, as the American electorate showed in the 2008 presidential election that they had gone beyond simple labels, when they voted for Obama, the first African American to become president of the United States.

What is brightening Romney’s chances of winning the election is the faltering economic recovery. Just a few months ago, the US economy was giving some signs of recovery, and it was assumed that President Obama would be a shoe-in November. In the first quarter of 2012, there were some promising bright spots, including increased auto production, computer sales and durable appliances. Although economic growth was at a mere 1.9 percent, consumer confidence was growing. But now, as the recovery appears stalled, Obama’s economic leadership is under serious voter scrutiny and Romney is starting to attract more attention.

On Friday (July 27), the government announced results for the second quarter of 2012, which were disappointing. They indicated weaker growth than expected (around 1.5 percent annually), low consumer confidence, and slow job growth and industrial production. There are also fears of contagion from the European economic crisis.

Of course, the Great Recession which started in 2008 was officially announced over in June 2009, but very few people believed that. Unemployment rate has been reduced from over 10 percent to 8.2 percent, but seems to be stagnating at this high level. With growth rates under 2 percent, it is hard to imagine how much job creation could take place to affect the unemployment rate.

Friday figures only went to confirm Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s pessimistic outlook when he addressed Congress last week. He warned of another recession if no agreement was reached soon between the Administration and Congress on tax increases and deep spending cuts.

But in an election year, few expect that Washington’s gridlock could be unblocked, as is it is unlikely that the Administration or Congress (or the Fed) could make any drastic decisions that might seriously change those economic prospects.

Could all of this lead to another recession? Many economists fear that that is the most likely scenario, at least for the remainder of 2012.

It would be bad news for any incumbent if elections are held during a recession, hence Romney’s upbeat mood these days.

However, there are still about 100 days before the presidential poll takes place. As such it is still too early to predict who is going to win. President Obama has plenty of time to try to change current economic trends and subsequently reverse their political consequences.

-

E-mail: [email protected]