The National Accountability Bureau court convicted the three-time Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif on Friday. Pakistanis have been contemplating the pros and cons of the verdict and also debating whether their society will be able to transform its culture of bribes, kickbacks and money laundering. Nonetheless, the verdict will have a lasting effect on the political landscape in Pakistan.
Since last summer, the house of Sharif has been facing the accountability process. But its legal team failed to provide satisfactory pieces of evidence on the purchases of luxury flats at Avenfield House in London. While stating “the offense of amassing assets beyond known sources of income which prima facie come under the preview of National Accountability Ordinance 1999 are corruption and corrupt practice,” the court sentenced Sharif to 10 years in prison and fined him £8 million ($10.6 million). His daughter Maryam was given a seven-year prison term and £2 million fine, while his son-in-law Safdar got one year in prison. The court also declared Sharif’s absconding sons Hassan and Hussain “proclaimed offenders.”
The court ousted Sharif’s apparent political heirs, Maryam and Safdar, from the July 25 elections. In recent months, Maryam had emerged as an icon of resistance to the powerful security establishment. Her hawkish speeches and rhetoric thrilled the youth and anti-establishment elements in the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, but unnerved the party’s rational and elderly leadership .
The seasoned political workers of PML-N were upset by the confrontational style of politics because they are aware of the security establishment’s powers of wheeling and dealing in national politics. Consequently, many electable members of the PML-N bandwagon joined Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and a few others preferred to contest the forthcoming parliamentary election as independent candidates.
The Sharifs’ convictions for corruption may bring an end to both father and daughter’s political careers. Moreover, it will have a decisive effect on the parliamentary elections. Perhaps it is difficult to predict whether it will increase the number of sympathy votes for the PML-N or generate apathy among the workers of the party. One fact is assured — that the judgment has had a demoralizing effect on the supporters of the PML-N.
Indeed, Sharif’s reaction to the judgment will influence the pace of the election. He announced he plans to return to the country by Friday. His lawyers have prepared an appeal against the verdict for filing in the Islamabad High Court. There is a minimal chance of judicial relief, but assured political mileage.
The opponents of the PML-N are stating that the processes for establishing rule of law and the erasing of corruption have now started in Pakistan. But is the former prime minister being sentenced in a corruption case enough to quash corruption within Pakistani society?
Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Despite having only a slight chance of acquittal, the elder Sharif and his daughter will return from London. The court cannot entertain an absconder’s appeal, so their presence at the Islamabad High Court is mandatory to challenge the accountability court’s verdict.
Meanwhile, he may not secure asylum in Britain because he has been convicted in money-laundering cases. Transparency International UK has asked the British government to investigate the Sharif family’s properties. “If a UK investigation concludes that the properties have been bought with corrupt money, then the authorities should move to seize the assets,” it said.
Third, with his return, the performance of PML-N will definitely improve. Finally, there is also hope for political survival, as well as the probability of a relaxation of the punishments from the apex judiciary.
The PML-N’s incumbent president Shahbaz Sharif, the younger brother of Nawaz, categorically rejected the verdict. He is reciting the victimhood narrative to get voters’ sympathy. His main argument in public gatherings is that a nexus between the accountability court and the PTI has been working against the PML-N and its leadership.
Shahbaz is walking a tightrope between avoiding a direct conflict with the state institutions and maintaining the confidence of the elder Sharif. He seems sensible about his limitations as a crowd-puller and voter mobilizer in the election campaign, and also the power of the security establishment.
The other top PML-N leaders are also criticizing the accountability process and claiming their leadership has been scapegoated. A few hawks are openly criticizing the country’s powerful security establishment. For them, it is a judicial coup at the behest of the security establishment. However, this plea is swiftly withering away.
The return of Nawaz and Maryam and their courageous facing of jail may energize PML-N supporters. The presence of both of them in the country, even behind bars, will fill the charisma vacuum the party is currently encountering. Conversely, their hard-line confrontationist position further antagonizes the security establishment and judiciary.
The opponents of the PML-N are stating that the processes for establishing rule of law and the erasing of corruption have now started in Pakistan. But is the former prime minister being sentenced in a corruption case enough to quash corruption within Pakistani society?
Many politicians, government officials and business moguls collected wealth beyond their means. White-collar crime is rampant in Pakistan; therefore, much more accountability is required.
In a nutshell, the pronouncement of the former PM’s guilt has multiplied PML-N’s challenges and reduced its chances of securing a simple majority in the National Assembly. Nonetheless, both the elder Sharif and PML-N continue as a reality on the political landscape of Pakistan.
— Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University.
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