Stock up on essentials and ‘Be Ready’ because adversity is coming

The UK government this week launched a new “Be Ready” campaign advising the public to stock up on at least three days’ worth of supplies in case of severe weather, cyberattacks or, God forbid, a major incident or war.

The two-page document called on people to ensure they have water, non-perishable food, a torch and batteries, and a radio, preferably of the wind-up variety that does not require electricity, so that they can stay connected in case the digital realm was unavailable. Of course, the campaign also advises having a first aid kit on hand, as well as a passport or other form of identification.

The defense secretary, Wes Streeting, said as he unveiled the campaign that it marked the start of a three-year drive to boost levels of preparedness among the general public. It forms part of the official response to the threat of incidents such as floods, wildfires or cybercrimes that could disrupt public services.

Streeting previously called for a “whole-of-society approach” to boost national resilience, urging people to be alert but not alarmed. He later told the British people that the UK must also be ready for war within 1,000 days, as adversaries were preparing to attack Britain by 2030.

In the current climate of escalating wars, discord and disconnection, and the apparent collapse of the rules-based international order, anything is possible.

Mohamed Chebaro

The public reaction to his calls, and the apocalyptic warnings accompanying them, was rather tame, with occasional examples of ridicule and banter. But generally, the traditional British wartime motto of “Stay calm and carry on” reigned supreme, and the public understood that nowadays we could all be living on borrowed time.

In the current climate of escalating wars, discord and disconnection, and the apparent collapse of the rules-based international order, anything is possible. But would a few cans of food, bottles of water and a wind-up radio really help us survive a catastrophe? I am not so sure.

If we take Streeting’s words at face value, one firstly wonders how serious the nature of the threat actually is, and secondly about the readiness of the UK and its people to fight back if required. Is three years enough time to mobilize, and where will the state find the money and industrial capacity to bring its armed forces and national resilience up to par?

The British Armed Forces are depleted, we are told, after decades of cuts and austerity measures. The resilience of the nation, should it be faced with modern, untested and untried types of hybrid threats from states or terror groups, has diminished to pre-Second World War levels, according to experts.

The third, and most important, question, therefore, is whether people in the UK would be likely to answer any call to mobilize and fight at all.

Today, Britain would find it challenging to arm, feed, heat or heal itself in an emergency.

Mohamed Chebaro

The “Be Ready” campaign is clearly simply calling for people to exercise some common sense. To my mind, however, more lasting changes at a state level and in wider society are required if such warnings are to even scratch the surface of efforts to ensure the country is more resilient and better prepared for any challenges.

In the 1980s, at the height of the Cold War, the British government launched a national “Protect and Survive” campaign that offered guidance on steps people should take to increase the chances of surviving a nuclear attack. The general response among the public was one of skepticism and disbelief; few people started digging shelters in their back yards. This was despite the fact that major, life-threatening calamities were not foreign to that generation; memories of the Second World War were still fresh in many people’s minds, compared with today.

Looking back at what has been happening in the past few years, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, I will never be one to interpret calls for readiness as mere posturing or empty apocalyptic rhetoric.

In this era of rapid technological transition, climate change, hybrid state- and nonstate-authored aggression, and the withering of restraints, societies, especially those in the Western Hemisphere, have been under concerted psychological warfare that aims to break social cohesion and the system that maintains it.

The “Be Ready” campaign is an important opening shot in efforts to address this. The warning from ministers and generals that the armed forces need to be modernized is also important, despite colossal constraints in the amount of money, materials and labor that is available to do so.

The issue here is not just the need for the public to stock up and be prepared. There are questions about state institutions and whether or not they will play their part, too. Recent reports have identified dozens of exposures that have undermined the resilience of the nation. At the outbreak of the pandemic, for example, the country lacked adequate supplies of protective gear and ventilators, as well as available hospital beds.

Today, Britain would find it challenging to arm, feed, heat or heal itself in an emergency. “Import” is the name of the game in meeting demand, from food-supply chains that are increasingly vulnerable, to supplies of iron, steel, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas that are at the mercy of complex geopolitical events, intensive competition, and market and international forces.

Even “special relationships,” like the long-cherished one between the UK and the US, can no longer be relied upon in this age of tariffs, protectionism and a “me first” mentality. As globalization deconstructs, supply chains are under increasing stress and Britain does not have stockpiles of food like some other nations, such as Germany and Poland.

Only 25 percent of the generic drugs the UK needs are produced in the country. In the event of a catastrophe, London would have to rely on goodwill and humanitarian aid from countries such as China, from which Britain sources 90 percent its penicillin and a large portion of its antibiotics.

Despite the green transition and renewable energy, Britain remains a net importer of all types of fuel, and the country’s energy mix is the costliest in Europe.

The list goes on and would get much longer if we consider digital connectivity, artificial intelligence, missile shields, or enough working planes and frigates to protect UK territory, let alone project, even mildly, the nation’s former power.

Personally, I have a natural, built-in inclination to stock up, always; as a child who grew up during Lebanon’s civil war, a little bag close to the door was a mainstay in my mind, always packed and ready to go with paper IDs, a torch, transistor radio, water and nonperishable food sufficient for days and nights in a shelter.

Britain, like the rest of Europe, must now grapple with how best to shift public perceptions and encourage people to take the “Be Ready” campaign seriously. Even more challenging, the government needs to find the money to build lasting resilience. Resilience in capitalist societies comes at a price.

This latest government pronouncement shows that British authorities are waking up to extant threats and are not in denial about them. The questions that remain are whether they are ready to foot the bill for preparedness and transformation, and are capable of fighting back and eliminating the threats rather than simply tallying them.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.