An agreement toward ending strife-torn Libya’s long political crisis has been hailed as a breakthrough but does not address key issues and will struggle to win approval, analysts and lawmakers say. A deal to end years of political deadlock is seen as crucial to restoring stability in the oil-rich North African nation and to tackling the rising threat from Daesh.
Delegates from the country’s rival parliaments said they reached a deal late on Saturday on a “declaration of principles” to resolve a crisis that has endured since the October 2011 overthrow of dictator Muammar Qaddafi. Officials from the internationally recognized House of Representatives and the Tripoli-based General National Congress had been holding secret talks, without the United Nations, in the suburbs of Tunis since Friday.
“Both teams will have to sell the initiative in their camps and will likely face pressures in doing so,” said Mohamed El-Jareh, from the Atlantic Council’s Hariri Centre for the Middle East. “The agreement is attractive and very simple in its form, not complicated — but when we get into the details and raise questions, there will be many outstanding and controversial issues,” the Libyan analyst said.
Some analysts suggested supporters of the agreement would even struggle to have it put forward in the country’s rival legislatures.
“It is hard to tell whether the proposal will actually be put to a vote given that both parliaments are controlled by hard-liners,” said Mattia Toaldo, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Libya descended into chaos after the ouster and killing of Qaddafi, with two governments vying for power and armed groups battling for control of its vast energy resources. A militia alliance including Islamists overran Tripoli in August 2014, establishing a rival government and a parliament and causing the internationally recognized administration to flee to the country’s remote east.
The Tunis agreement comes after lawmakers from both sides in October rejected a UN-backed power-sharing deal under which Libya would be governed by a nine-member presidential council made up of a prime minister, five deputy premiers and three senior ministers. The new document provides for one committee to nominate a prime minister within 15 days and another to conduct a review of Libya’s constitution. It does not, however, address important issues such as the future of Libya Army chief Gen. Khalifa Haftar.
The internationally recognized parliament opposes any agreement that does not guarantee him a future, while the Tripoli-based legislature does not want him to have a role.
“This proposal doesn’t say a clear word about the army and Gen. Haftar, ultimately sidestepping the crucial issue of how to guarantee the security of the new government,” Toaldo said. But lawmakers said they were keen to move forward despite the potential hurdles.
“The vote on this initiative will go ahead inside the House of Representatives — even if it will meet with opposition inside it,” said Abu Baker Bueira, a member of the internationally recognized parliament. The LANA news agency close to Tripoli authorities said on Monday that the head of the GNC “was striving with all sides to implement the agreement toward solving the political crisis in Libya.” Libyan politicians say that, despite its shortcomings, the agreement is a first step toward a solution.
Issa Al-Uraybi, a member of the internationally recognized parliament, said the Tunis agreement was a “better choice” than the UN blueprint. UN special envoy for Libya Martin Kobler did not directly comment on the Tunis agreement on Sunday, but stressed that the UN-brokered Libyan Political Agreement was the only way toward peace. The Tunis initiative comes as experts and sources in Libya say Daesh militants are seeking to expand beyond their Libyan stronghold Sirte.
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AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE
