As if the refugee problem was not bad enough on the global scale and internment camps more than those in the years of WWII in the past four days there has been a fresh infusion. Over 50,000 civilians have been displaced in South Sudan in just four days of bitter fighting between the rival groups of President Kiir and his adversary Vice President Machar. The Dinkas and the Nuers tribes respectively need little provocation to go for each other. Although Tuesday was relatively quiet the peace is at best fragile and it is up for grabs whether the cease-fire called by both sides will hold.
The capital, Juba, is shaky as residents stock up and there are palpable fears that the situation could deteriorate into another civil war like in 2013 where it was brutal and savage and brought up the issue of inducting child or toy soldiers into uniform and arming them. The film, Beasts of No Nation underscored the cruelty of the practice and South Sudan is again on the brink of disaster.
One has to give credit to the UN and the US as well as The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) — an eight-country trade bloc in Africa — all of whom have wasted no time in getting involved rather than simply mouth platitudes. In fact the role played by IGAD being financial assumes greater significance and could be the main spike in the gun.
The fear is that the two sides are on a hair trigger. The recent bout of violence began with a minor skirmish and escalated into a major battle in moments.
Financial sanctions are a language that Kiir and Machar might both understand since their positions of command will weaken if there is a fiscal blowback. Soldiers who are not paid don’t like to fight. IGAD can position itself as the buffer and stop another round of killings with backing from the UN and Washington which wasted no time for once in grasping the nettle.
Another dimension to the tension in the country comes from China’s assertion that it is directly related to US interference in China’s oil rights in the region. Beijing’s comments that the US and the EU have indirectly encouraged violence by leaving the fate of the people of South Sudan in the hands of two enemies knowing full well that governance would be impossible will not sit well in the west. It will be seen as a direct intent for China to upgrade its influence in a continent where it is already well ahead of the game. Except that it isn’t a game.
The capital, Juba, is shaky as residents stock up and there are palpable fears that the situation could deteriorate into another civil war like in 2013 where it was brutal and savage and brought up the issue of inducting child or toy soldiers into uniform and arming them. The film, Beasts of No Nation underscored the cruelty of the practice and South Sudan is again on the brink of disaster.
One has to give credit to the UN and the US as well as The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) — an eight-country trade bloc in Africa — all of whom have wasted no time in getting involved rather than simply mouth platitudes. In fact the role played by IGAD being financial assumes greater significance and could be the main spike in the gun.
The fear is that the two sides are on a hair trigger. The recent bout of violence began with a minor skirmish and escalated into a major battle in moments.
Financial sanctions are a language that Kiir and Machar might both understand since their positions of command will weaken if there is a fiscal blowback. Soldiers who are not paid don’t like to fight. IGAD can position itself as the buffer and stop another round of killings with backing from the UN and Washington which wasted no time for once in grasping the nettle.
Another dimension to the tension in the country comes from China’s assertion that it is directly related to US interference in China’s oil rights in the region. Beijing’s comments that the US and the EU have indirectly encouraged violence by leaving the fate of the people of South Sudan in the hands of two enemies knowing full well that governance would be impossible will not sit well in the west. It will be seen as a direct intent for China to upgrade its influence in a continent where it is already well ahead of the game. Except that it isn’t a game.
