Former international mediator Kofi Annan did not give up on his mission to bring about a political transition in Syria because he got bored! He did so when he realized that diplomacy with Assad would not work and that the latter was using all initiatives to buy time. In other words, Annan, a seasoned and experienced diplomat, came to the conclusion that playing Assad’s game would only increase sufferings of Syrians. His resignation should be seen as a wakeup call for the international community to take a more decisive action against the butcher of Damascus.
Given the ongoing battle over Aleppo and the fact that both the opposition and the Syrian regime have reached the point of no return, it seems that appointing another mediator is an amateur step. While the suggested mediator — Lakhdar Brahimi — is as good as Annan, it is not clear what the new mediator can bring to the table! Will he be able to convince Assad to accept Annan’s plan? Why should he succeed where Annan failed? Additionally, details of his new job are yet to be articulated.
Unfortunately, the West is in denial. So far, the Western countries have failed to make a difference despite their verbal and diplomatic involvement in the crisis. By floating the idea of picking up another mediator, the West proves that it has no choice but to give diplomacy and mediation another chance.
I believe that the new mediator can be more effective than Annan for objective reasons. His experience in the region is amazing. He brokered the agreement that brought about Karzai temporary government in Afghanistan. Also, he did a miracle when he worked to bring and end to the Lebanese civil war. His mediation was key to creating the new balance of power in Lebanon with the end of the cold war.
And yet, he would not have succeeded without the full cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Syria. For the time being, the acrimonious relationship between the two countries is an obstacle to any solution. However, it is not as if it is a battle between the Syrian regime and Saudi Arabia; it is deeper than that. Assad is not expected to cooperate with any plan that paves the way for his demise. Annan’s plan was the mechanism for political transition in Syria. For this reason, Assad foiled it from the get-go. Seen in this way, a miracle alone is not enough to push Assad to change his mind. The international community needs to change realities on the ground and if it falls short of doing that, Assad will continue dodging the will of the international community.
Assad’s position will change if realities on the ground change. Here where the Arabs and the West can work together. First, uniting the Syrian opposition should be placed on the front burner. It is ridiculous to allow some 14 different opposition groups working within and without Syria without taking any step for unity. In addition to that, there are the Free Syrian Army and some political groups. This list does not include of course Al-Qaeda activists who sneaked into Syria. Unquestionably, unity among these groups will present the opposition in a different shape. They will qualify for financial and military aid, a move that can reverse the tide of events in Syria in favor of the revolution.
For the new mediator to succeed where Annan failed, the realities on the ground should be different. Arabs and the West should put their money where their mouths are. Therefore, Assad forces must suffer dearly and only then a mediator can impose his plan on Assad. So far, the divisions among the opposition groups have hindered the political and military plans of the West. That said, all attempts to unite the opposition have failed. Now, the battle is ongoing and the war of attrition is expected to last for a long period. This could cause a fatigue among warriors and this may help the mediator to do something. But until then, the number of Syrian refugees may exceed one million and there is no guarantee that the whole country would not descend into a civil war.
In brief, it is not about a new mediator. There is no reason that the new mediator will succeed in the foreseeable future. Those who support the Syrian uprising and who seeks political transition in Syria need to change realities on the ground instead of relying on a new mediators with dim chances to make it.
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