Why another Palestinian uprising is all but inevitable

The Palestinian territories are approaching breaking point. As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to meet US President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday, more Israeli army units are being deployed across the West Bank, and any meaningful breakthrough in Gaza remains a distant fantasy. Meanwhile, the daily carnage in the enclave goes largely uncovered — overshadowed by the Iran conflict and compounded by the near-total absence of foreign media on the ground.

The world is not watching. But the conditions for an explosion are unmistakably building.

I have lived through and reported on both the first and second Palestinian uprisings. The word intifada literally means “shaking off” — a mass rejection by Palestinians of what they experience as a seemingly endless, unwanted foreign military occupation. While many analysts have prematurely predicted a third intifada over the years, the constellation of forces present today is different. It is more volatile, combustible, and dangerous than at any previous moment.

History does not repeat itself exactly, but it chimes with striking clarity. The first intifada erupted in 1988 against the backdrop of the illegal settlement of Elon Moreh, near Nablus, as well as Egypt’s failure at Camp David to advance the Palestinian cause, leaving Palestinians to struggle alone for freedom. That uprising was largely nonviolent, yet it fundamentally shook a calcified status quo.

The second intifada followed in 2000 after the collapse of Camp David II, Israeli leader Ariel Sharon’s provocative march through the grounds of Al-Aqsa Mosque, and a dramatic surge in settlement construction — more than 1,000 new residential units were built in just the first six months of that year, with many, including Har Homa, deliberately placed to sever Jerusalem from Bethlehem. Both uprisings shared common triggers: no political horizon, relentless settler expansion, the desecration of sacred space, and a Palestinian population pushed beyond its limit.

Fast forward to 2026, and those same triggers have only intensified. Israeli leaders have refused to meet with their Palestinian counterparts since 2014. There is no peace process or even negotiation; no political horizon that Palestinians can look to. There is only an occupation that is deepening by the day. Israeli settlement activity this summer has reached historic levels, with a $427 million security Cabinet approval to establish 34 new settlements, authorization of 13 additional settlement plans around Jerusalem and Ramallah, and millions transferred specifically for settlement infrastructure and outposts.

History does not repeat itself exactly, but it chimes with striking clarity. 

Daoud Kuttab

Settler violence has reached unprecedented levels. Land, homes, and vehicles are torched daily, while well-armed settler militias operate with near-total impunity, routinely aided and openly justified by the Israeli military. Scores of Palestinians have been killed. More than 1,000 Israelis led by far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir conducted Jewish prayers inside Al-Aqsa Mosque, Islam’s third-holiest site — a deliberate and incendiary act with deep historical resonance.

Meanwhile, over half of Gaza is now under direct Israeli military occupation. Israel continues to suffocate the population, blocking entry and exit for all but a handful of critically ill, while more than a thousand Palestinians have been killed during a supposed ceasefire.

There is no ambiguity here: the Palestinian territories are a ticking bomb. Even senior Israeli military officials have acknowledged the likelihood of a third intifada and spoken candidly about the dangers of the current trajectory. Adding another layer of urgency, a critical Israeli election is scheduled for Oct. 27 — a contest that historically devolves into a competition over who can be most punitive toward Palestinians, further inflaming an already explosive situation.

What makes this moment uniquely alarming is not just Israeli policy but also the international community’s failure to respond to it. The International Criminal Court warrant against Netanyahu remains valid, yet few have demonstrated genuine interest in enforcing it. Military support and arms supplies to Israel have barely been reduced. World leaders who know the truth remain largely silent, while New York City’s Mayor Zohran Mamdani has shown more courage than most heads of state in calling the Israeli leader what the ICC has declared him to be: a wanted war criminal. This silence is not neutrality but complicity.

Palestinians have been left with no political recourse, no international protection, and no end in sight. If history is any guide, Palestinians will once again be forced to resist with nothing but their bare hands and bodies. The only question that remains is this: When the third intifada comes, will the world once again choose to look away?

The answer will say as much about the supposed free world as it does about the conflict itself. The international community must wake up, hold Israel accountable for documented war crimes, and recognize that silence in the face of this unfolding genocide is a choice — with consequences no one should ignore.

• Daoud Kuttab is an award-winning Palestinian journalist and former Ferris Professor of Journalism at Princeton University. He is the author of ‘State of Palestine Now: Practical and Logical Arguments for the Best Way to Bring Peace to the Middle East.’ X: @daoudkuttab