As we welcome 2014, the Middle East continues to occupy center stage in world politics. From Syria to Egypt and from Palestine to Lebanon, the region promises to provide news headlines in the weeks and months to come. Unfortunately for some, if 2013 was a particularly bad year, the New Year does not look any better. Still, some conflict may get much needed relief. Here is a list of the top four regional issues that will catch the world’s attention in 2014.

Palestine/Israel: For a change some good news may come from this embattled region as the United States pushes hard to deliver a framework agreement that tackles security challenges in addition to presenting a shared view of final status issues. US Secretary of State John Kerry is expected to unveil his plan in the coming weeks. The two sides should adopt the framework agreement before the end of April and sign a peace treaty within one year. This is the good news. But the two sides are yet to agree on borders, refugees and Jerusalem, three difficult issues that have kept them from reaching a final settlement for years.

The US is pushing to assure the Israelis on security in return for compromises on other issues. The Palestinians have rejected a proposal to allow the Israeli military to stay in the Jordan Valley for a period of 10 years. The US may deploy US or NATO troops instead. It all looks complicated, especially as the Knesset may vote on a draft law to annex the Jordan Valley and derail talks. On refugees the focus will be on compensation as Israel rejects the right of return. And on Jerusalem, a controversial file for both, the US may attempt to convince Israel to allow the Palestinians symbolic access. Israel won’t budge on this. An agreement embraced by the Palestinians should open the way for the implementation of the Arab peace initiative. There are many skeptics on both sides of the conflict, but the mood is upbeat.

Syria: Geneva II will take place in January, but it will unlikely end the war in Syria. There are many variables and the regime is bent on pursuing a military solution to what it considers as a terrorist threat to Syria. The opposition knows that it cannot afford to stay away if it is to have any role in the future of the country. So far it appears that the fate of President Bashar Assad will not be dealt with in the early stages of peace negotiations.

But attention will also be focused on the ground as new coalitions and alliances emerge among rebel groups and dissidents. Syrian nationalists have come together under the so-called Islamic Front. Their fight is not only against the regime but foreign fighters with associations to Al-Qaeda. The biggest challenge in Syria will be a humanitarian one as refugees and displaced families continue to suffer and international agencies warn of impending disaster.

The Syrian conflict is also tied to Lebanon where sectarian tensions continue to rise against the backdrop of Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria and the political paralysis that has prevented a new government from emerging. Last week’s assassination of a key Sunni politician in Beirut will deepen the political stalemate. As usual Lebanon is a stage where many regional powers settle scores.

Egypt: The referendum on the new constitution will pass with flying colors. Egyptians are tired and fed up of the state of chaos and instability that has ripped the country apart since the overthrow of the Mubarak regime. But last week’s designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization will not help end the state of polarization and stop the cycle of violence. The country needs political reconciliation something, which neither party is ready for.

The military-backed government has not been successful in managing the crisis. It has alienated the secular youth forces, adding to a growing opposition against the military. Chances are that Gen. Abdel-Fatah El-Sissi will be forced to run for president if only to keep the country together. Security and economic challenges will not go away any time soon.

Iraq: Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki’s controversial policies are expected to divide the country even further. He has been unable to engage in a national reconciliation process and continues to exclude rivals, even on the Shiite side, from any role in preserving unity. He has also failed to stand up to the terrorist threat from Al-Qaeda and its affiliates. His recent clash with the Sunnis of Anbar province will unleash a new round of violence. His authoritarian style of government is today the biggest challenge to Iraq’s integrity as a nation. He has also failed to appease the Kurds who are now challenging the central government. Al-Maliki’s refusal to recognize his faults will push the country further toward civil strife.

The region has had a tough year in 2013. But there are signs that some issues may be resolved in 2014. Definitely the agreement between the international community and Iran over its nuclear program is a diplomatic breakthrough, but it will take much more for Iran to regain the confidence and trust of its Gulf neighbors. Attention will be focused on the struggle by Arab Spring countries, like Tunis, Libya and Yemen, to emerge from current political challenges. The New Year brings hope and expectations for the people of this region but it could also bring disappointments.

- Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.

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