The Middle East has been in the eye of geopolitical storms in 2014 and it is certain that the region will continue to be the focal point of international and regional attention in 2015. From the crises in Syria and Iraq to the international war on militants to the audacious Houthi takeover of most of Yemen and the crumbling of the Libyan state, the Middle East is going through political, economic and social transformations the like of which we had not see for decades.
Here is a look at the region’s hotspots in 2015 and the prospects for resolution and/or evolution.
The war on militancy and the future of Iraq and Syria: The spectacular rise of the Islamic State (IS), in addition to other extremist groups across the region, has become the epicenter of regional and international efforts to counter what is probably the biggest challenge the region has ever faced.
The three-month air campaign seems to have shaken the militants in some parts of Syria and Iraq, but it is unlikely to succeed in eradicating them. The outcome of the campaign will vary from one country to another. In Iraq much depends on the ability of the new Iraqi government to appease the country’s Sunnis and draw them into an acceptable political deal. That is easier said than done. Iran carries much weight in Baghdad and it has dispatched thousands of so-called advisers to oversee the fight against IS militants.
Iran is not enthusiastic over plans to train and arm tens of thousands of Iraq’s Sunnis under the so-called National Guard. Tehran fears that such a small army will eventually be drawn into sectarian confrontations with the country’s Shiites; leading to the de facto partition of Iraq into Kurdish, Arab Sunni and Arab Shiite enclaves or mini-states.
The US’ sway over Iraq is questionable as admitted by Republican Sen. John McCain recently. At one point Washington and Tehran will have to discuss the future of Iraq and the strategy to defeat the Sunni militants.
The possible fall of Anbar province to IS militants — it is believed they already control 80 percent of it — will be a game changer in Iraq, and may hasten the partition of the country. In Syria it is a different scenario. IS militants are in control of most of the country’s north and northeast. They face little resistance from the regular Syrian army and other rebel groups. Failure to arm the Free Syrian Army (FSA), as promised by Washington, will only weaken the rebels’ grip over areas under their control.
Most observers and active players in Syria agree that a military solution is beyond the Damascus regime. Efforts by Moscow and Cairo to re-launch a political process are interesting but unlikely to bear fruit.
The National Syrian Coalition (NSC) is divided and lacks legitimacy. The regime, on the other hand, has exhausted its military options but holds firm to its position that rejects calls for President Bashar Assad to leave. In 2015 the most likely scenario is the continuation of the status quo; the future of Syria will be decided when the war against IS militants achieves its goals. Diplomatic fatigue over Syria is the main headline for now.
Yemen and the Houthi uprising: The Houthis are determined to carry on with their slow but successful takeover of Yemen despite repeated attempts to implement a peace deal. Facing little resistance from the army, which has divided loyalties, they will continue to spread their control over most of the country’s governorates. The only viable resistance will come from Yemeni tribes, who are likely to ally themselves with Al-Qaeda militants operating in the western regions.
It is a recipe for a sectarian civil war that will tear this country apart. Failure by the international community, to intervene may lead to the emergence of the Yemen crisis as a serious regional threat. The south may use the crisis to push through with plans to secede.
Libya on the brink: In spite of the ongoing military campaign by the national army and forces loyal to retired Gen. Khalifa Haftar to target militias, the political crisis in Libya is far from being resolved. Attempts to initiate a national dialogue, under UN auspices, are likely to fail. The national army will face setbacks as it attempts to fight rebels in Misrata or move on to the capital Tripoli. With two parliaments and two governments, along with tens of militias, Libya is on the verge of collapse, especially as rebels target the oil rich regions and ports. But more seriously for the region and the rest of the world is the emergence of militants loyal to IS in areas like Darna and the southern regions where there is no government control. Libya’s slow disintegration threatens its neighbors, especially Egypt. But there are no signs that the West has a plan to salvage the country.
The bitter harvest of 2014 will be carried over to the coming year. The region will face new threats and most geopolitical challenges will go unresolved. The Sunni world is going through a dramatic evolutionary process and it is worrying that extremism is flourishing in most parts in the absence of credible voices calling for moderation and tolerance.
