This New Year is going to be very important for Brazil. In June the country hosts the World Cup for the first time since it last held it in 1950. That year it lost the Cup to Uruguay 2-1. This year Brazil is one of the favorites to win the competition, and naturally Brazilians would love it if they did.
Presidential and congressional elections are also being held in October in what may become a referendum of sorts of the Workers Party, which has been in power for more than 10 years now. President Dilma Rousseff is up for re-election and according to most opinion polls is slated to win, if not in the first round than in the second round. Marina Silva, a former Workers Party member, but who left a few years ago to join the Green Party after having been the environment minister during the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from 2003-2008, is the main challenger of Dilma. Although she is now affiliated to the Brazilian Socialist Party, when she ran for the presidency in 2010 under the Green Party, Marina received a significant 19.9 million votes, or 19.33 percent of all votes cast.
The Brazilian economic miracle of high growth and low inflation that many here were bragging about a few years ago when the rest of the world was in a slump following the 2008 depression is now showing signs of weakness. GDP growth in 2013 was a mere 2.5 percent, with the same expected this year. In comparison, India is expected to have 5.1percent GDP growth in 2014, and emerging economies are also expected to grow 5.1percent this year. Much of this decline can be blamed on the so-called “Brazil cost” of doing business. The government here taxes everything heavily, often making Brazilian products uncompetitive both in the local market and abroad. A deluge of cheap Chinese imports has also impacted Brazilian manufacturers who find it hard to compete with that Asian country’s super-cheap prices. This has led Brazil to file anti-dumping charges against China and the US at the World Trade Organization.
High prices in Brazil for clothing, electronics, toys and perfumes have pushed Brazilians on a huge shopping binge trips overseas over the last few years. The Brazilian Central Bank said Brazilians spent a record $18.6 billion abroad in 2013, up from $17.4 billion the year before that. Foreign tourists in Brazil spent only $6.13 billion in the first eleven months of 2013. Flights from Miami to Brazil are full of Brazilian tourists returning with suitcases jammed with iPhones, designer clothes, baby clothes and tennis shoes.
Tourists coming to Brazil for the World Cup will probably be shocked by the high prices here. Prices for a meal at a good restaurant in São Paulo or Brasilia are often higher than comparable restaurants in New York or London. Part of the blame is the strong real currency, which only in the last few months has been losing ground to the US dollar. A Big Mac burger costs R$13 here or $5.47. A Big Mac value meal costs R$22 or $9.27. In comparison, fresh fruit and vegetables are cheap in Brazil and plentiful the whole year around.
Although many middle class Brazilians speak or are learning to speak English, many in key positions such as airport workers do not. I predict this will be a problem during the World Cup. Just two years ago Saudi and Pakistani friends of mine flew to a conference here in Brazil and complained to me that they could not find anyone who spoke decent English at the Guarulhos airport in São Paulo, the country’s largest international airport. In part I blame the continental size of Brazil, which tends to foster a sense of not needing to learn a foreign language, much as is the case in the United States. When I complained to a Brazilian friend about the lack of English-speakers at the São Paulo airport, he angrily retorted that foreigners should be able to speak Portuguese. I pointed out to him that we could not expect tourists coming here for just a few weeks to be able to speak Portuguese.
The threat of violent demonstrations during the World Cup must also be keeping Brazilian officials awake at night. In June of last year huge anti-government demonstrations erupted in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Brasilia, the demonstrators, mostly aged 18-25, protesting the billions of dollars being spent on constructing new stadiums for the World Cup while public services such as hospitals and schools are over-stretched, crowded and of poor quality. Protests during the World Cup, when all of the world’s attention is turned to Brazil, will be highly embarrassing for the Brazilian government.
Despite all of these negative aspects, tourists will be amazed at the beauty of Brazil, which has beautiful rivers in the Amazon and fantastic beaches along the entire Northeastern coast. They will, most importantly, be charmed by the friendliness and warmth of Brazilians, who are always ready and curious to help tourists. And even if they don’t speak English, you can be sure that they will make themselves understood with plenty of gestures, goodwill and laughter too.
n The writer is a Saudi journalist based in Brazil.
