EGYPTIAN President Abdel Fattah El-Sissi is the first to admit that the war on terror will be long and painful. In the wake of last week’s deadly attacks against his troops in Al-Arish in northern Sinai, Egyptians are accepting the fact that winning the war against radicals will not be easy. Months after the military launched the most stringent campaign against terrorists belonging to Ansar Bait El-Maqdis, the group remains strong and capable of hitting back. Needless to say this security crisis has become the biggest challenge to the Egyptian president since he took office last year.
Egypt is still reeling from the tumultuous events that hit it since the Jan. 25 uprising four years ago, which brought down the regime of former President Hosni Mubarak. The rise and fall of the Muslim Brotherhood rule later on has triggered a series of upsets and polarized Egyptian society.
Today El-Sissi is fighting on a number of fronts — political, economic and social. The rebuilding of Egypt’s state institutions is not complete and the challenge to his rule by the radicals, although minimal, is testing the country’s readiness to complete the road map and achieve some sort of reconciliation.
El-Sissi has accused foreign powers of backing the terrorists. The military has resorted to various measures in Sinai in an attempt to weaken the terrorists. Most of these measures have proved to be unpopular by residents of the peninsula. Many Egyptians are aware that in the long run pacifying Sinai will require much more than military intervention. Northern Sinai has been left undeveloped by the old regime for decades resulting in high rates of unemployment and poverty. Its remoteness from Cairo and proximity to Gaza may have alienated its residents and helped fuel suspicions by its military governors.
Now the militant group, which declared its allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), is posing a threat to the entire country. It is likely that they are getting outside help as well. The instability in Libya, which shares long borders with Egypt, has facilitated the smuggling of men and weapons into Sinai. It is also possible that the same is happening on the Rafah-Gaza border through an intricate network of tunnels. But El-Sissi must tread carefully as well. Punishing the people of northern Sinai through severe measures will add to an already tense relationship between the residents and the government.
The long-term solution to Sinai’s problem will rest on executing ambitious plans for development that will change the economic and social realities of its residents. But for now El-Sissi must win the war against the militants without alienating the people of Sinai. At the same time he must find ways to restore confidence in the political process and distance his rule from the old regime.
In addition, El-Sissi must also address the challenge of reconciliation with moderate Islamists forces that continue to enjoy support among many Egyptians. Refusing to accept this fact will only drive young men and women associated with these forces underground. It is important to realize that the war in Sinai has nothing to do with opening up to moderate Islamists. Stability in Egypt will come through reconciling these forces and including them in the political process.
For decades Egypt had suffered from the rule of oligarchs backed by the military. El-Sissi must find ways to ensure that the country moves beyond this and begin a new chapter based on democracy, respect for human rights, pluralism and transparency. The war in Sinai should not come at the expense of an agenda that fulfills the goals of the Jan. 25 uprising.
