US Secretary of State John Kerry’s latest proposal for a closer cooperation between the United States and Russia against terrorists in Syria may run the risk of falling into a Russian trap. Whether by design or default, such a plan will make Washington look less credible in the eyes of the moderate opposition in Syria. Few, if any, will believe that America is serious in helping the Syrian people get rid of Assad’s regime.
Skeptics of sharing intelligence with Russia include some Americans as well as some European members of the international coalition against Daesh. By and large, members of the international coalition view Russia as an untrustworthy player who has shored up a regime of terror. Chances are high that Moscow will use the new plan to further eradicate the moderate opposition. Worse, Russia will know the source of American intelligence and this may have operational consequences that may affect the moderate opposition.
Kerry and his supporters in the State Department act as if there is no alternative but to work with Russia. “There are reasons to be skeptical, as with any approach in Syria, but those who criticize this plan as unlikely to work or flawed on other grounds, like working with Russia, have the responsibility of presenting something better or more effective,” said former White House Middle East adviser Philip Gordon.
As far as Kerry is concerned, the plan presents the best chance to put an end to an ongoing fighting that has been pushing thousands of Syrians — terrorist included — into Europe. Obviously, Kerry is playing on the fear button of Europeans. Hence, his rationale may be convincing to some Europeans whose countries suffer from a wave of terrorist attacks. And yet, empowering Assad will not put an end to the crisis and Assad’s survival will work as a magnet for more terrorists to join the fight in years to come.
It is not yet clear how the plan is going to be implemented. But targeting the Nusra Front will not be an easy mission for two reasons. First, the Nusra Front has disengaged from Al-Qaeda and its fighters are now part of a different faction. They are now mixed with moderate rebels and hence it will not be an easy job to target them while sparing the moderate rebels.
Another sticking point is President Putin. He is driven by his conception of what constitutes the best interest of his country. Evidence suggest that he will not hesitate to dishonor an agreement if he feels that it is not in his country’s best interest anymore. It seems that even Kerry does not rule out cheating on the part of Russians. He warned that if it turns out to be a ploy then his country would act differently. Really? How?
Thus far, it is hard to avoid the realization that Russia is opting for another deception. President Putin is certain that the current American administration is without teeth in Syria. Seen in this way, Putin can always do things in Syria and get away with it! This is true especially with Obama’s few months left in the White House where many will soon see his as a lame duck president.
The plan would have been effective if it were part of the political transition both sides have been talking about for some time. But it is not! Until this moment, Russia refuses to talk about Assad’s departure even as a “happy” end of a political transition. Unfortunately, Kerry has been playing into the hands of the Russians and there is little hope that he would act differently in the months to come.
Skeptics of sharing intelligence with Russia include some Americans as well as some European members of the international coalition against Daesh. By and large, members of the international coalition view Russia as an untrustworthy player who has shored up a regime of terror. Chances are high that Moscow will use the new plan to further eradicate the moderate opposition. Worse, Russia will know the source of American intelligence and this may have operational consequences that may affect the moderate opposition.
Kerry and his supporters in the State Department act as if there is no alternative but to work with Russia. “There are reasons to be skeptical, as with any approach in Syria, but those who criticize this plan as unlikely to work or flawed on other grounds, like working with Russia, have the responsibility of presenting something better or more effective,” said former White House Middle East adviser Philip Gordon.
As far as Kerry is concerned, the plan presents the best chance to put an end to an ongoing fighting that has been pushing thousands of Syrians — terrorist included — into Europe. Obviously, Kerry is playing on the fear button of Europeans. Hence, his rationale may be convincing to some Europeans whose countries suffer from a wave of terrorist attacks. And yet, empowering Assad will not put an end to the crisis and Assad’s survival will work as a magnet for more terrorists to join the fight in years to come.
It is not yet clear how the plan is going to be implemented. But targeting the Nusra Front will not be an easy mission for two reasons. First, the Nusra Front has disengaged from Al-Qaeda and its fighters are now part of a different faction. They are now mixed with moderate rebels and hence it will not be an easy job to target them while sparing the moderate rebels.
Another sticking point is President Putin. He is driven by his conception of what constitutes the best interest of his country. Evidence suggest that he will not hesitate to dishonor an agreement if he feels that it is not in his country’s best interest anymore. It seems that even Kerry does not rule out cheating on the part of Russians. He warned that if it turns out to be a ploy then his country would act differently. Really? How?
Thus far, it is hard to avoid the realization that Russia is opting for another deception. President Putin is certain that the current American administration is without teeth in Syria. Seen in this way, Putin can always do things in Syria and get away with it! This is true especially with Obama’s few months left in the White House where many will soon see his as a lame duck president.
The plan would have been effective if it were part of the political transition both sides have been talking about for some time. But it is not! Until this moment, Russia refuses to talk about Assad’s departure even as a “happy” end of a political transition. Unfortunately, Kerry has been playing into the hands of the Russians and there is little hope that he would act differently in the months to come.
