The crisis surrounding the results of the recently held presidential polls in Afghanistan has once again exposed the gaping political deficit that South Asia is faced with perennially. That emergence of narcissistic leadership lacking political sagacity has seriously damaged the region’s democratic plinth can be ascertained from the rather childish bickering that the two major contenders of the Afghanistan poll process got embroiled in.
Unfortunately, the Afghan presidential candidates were more interested in promoting a parochial personal agenda at the cost of the country’s nascent yet dynamic democratic system. More importantly, the imbroglio effectively puts the spotlight on the country’s election body, which many feels has been found wanting in upholding its own independence.
Even incumbent President Hamid Karzai was drawn into this needless controversy as he was suspected of orchestrating the political crisis for personal gains. Karzai, in fact, had a say in the selection of the passive election commissioners. The big question is whether he has been used as a front to kick-start a new great game in the Afghan theatre as America prepares for a complete pullout. Or else, how come the hosts of Afghan and international poll monitors fail to identify the massive electoral fraud, especially when a similar controversy engulfed the 2009 presidential election too? The United States was then accused of trying to manipulate the polls blatantly for removing Karzai from office. Besides, some analysts suspect that this political drama has been deliberately enacted to prevent the signing of a bilateral agreement, essential for keeping a skeletal American military force in Afghanistan beyond 2014.
Since, history has a habit of repeating itself in a different form, the volatile scenario in Afghanistan does point toward the possibility of this strategic space being exploited by some old players like India, China and Russia. The strategic establishments of these nations are anxiously waiting in the wings for the last vestiges of American colonialism in Afghanistan to crumble. However, officially India has expressed extreme disappointment at the way the political situation has unfolded in Afghanistan. In a rather sarcastic statement, the Indian Foreign Ministry hoped “the Afghan leadership cutting across party lines knows that while winning an election requires simple arithmetic majority, running a country requires inclusiveness and an ability to carry everyone along.” Given the timing of the election, India feels, it is imperative that the electoral outcome should be not only convincingly acceptable but also believable to the majority of people.
At a time when the international presence in Afghanistan is gradually receding, widening of social fissures will only incentivize radical elements. Let the world and regional powers not ignore those worrying reports emanating from the ground that in an operation similar to the one launched by the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) in Iraq and Syria, selected Taleban cells backed by foreign militants and narco-traffickers are trying hard to establish full control over several districts in the southern Afghan province of Helmand.
In such a scenario, Karzai’s failure to uphold the integrity of the electoral process can potentially create serious disharmony in an already divided nation. New Delhi is peeved that Karzai chose to gloss over genuine complaints of electoral exclusion. Majority of native people in Pashtun-dominated region and a sizeable number of those in the north of Afghanistan who have lawfully opposed the war of occupation were not allowed to enroll their names in the poll register.
Moreover, many legitimate voters in places like Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktika, Zabul and elsewhere could not exercise their franchise due to alleged insensitivity and apathy of the election commission. Critics argue that without Karzai administrations’ tacit support, the massive irregularities, including reported sale of voter’s registration cards in open market, would not have occurred. Though it is very unlikely that India-educated Karzai was completely out of the radar of India’s strategic establishment, he still went about pursuing a strategy of foxing the international community with great finesse and even bribed, divided and manipulated the domestic political players to maintain his indispensability. There is not an iota of doubt that, with or without New Delhi’s knowledge, Karzai has successfully established a patronage network in Afghanistan, defying the aspirations of the Afghan people.
Surely, India’s new national security adviser — a super spy himself — will have his hands full with Afghan entanglement. While Karzai is an invaluable asset to end any potential gridlock in troubled Afghanistan, his disguised ethnic bias has been a liability for most of his international backers including India. In the multi-ethnic Afghan polity, any attempt to pamper notions of ethnic supremacy will undermine the country’s fragile stability further.
So, what can India do to strengthen Afghanistan’s democratic system in the backdrop of the contested electoral outcome? It is indeed a tricky situation. The same poll has evoked different responses in two different phases. While the first round of the democratic process, marred by bloodshed, received universal commendation, the following phase polarized the Afghan society to the hilt. Western officials have rightly forced a recount of all the 8 million votes polled in the disputed election. New Delhi should therefore opt for a tactical intervention by co-opting Pakistan. Given their strong influence and leverage within the different ethnic groups, both these nations can together put an end to Afghanistan’s ethnicity based distribution of political power and help achieve a reformed political system which is more diffused, democratic and transparent. Besides, a fruitful Indo-Pak strategic alliance will inevitably change the destiny of South Asia positively.
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Seema Sengupta is a Kolkata-based journalist and columnist.
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