Is the Syrian regime readying to further tighten its grip over Lebanon?
The answer may have been signaled by recent developments. After the killers’ victory in Aleppo, the Syrian and Iranian leverage in Lebanon is expected to gain momentum. Syrian President Bashar Assad emerged victorious in the Aleppo battle, but it was a shameful, ugly triumph over besieged civilians. It also taught us some cruel, frightening lessons.
This victory of evil powers would not have happened unless the world tacitly agreed that the stronger force has the right to kill. This reality will not be confined to Aleppo, because no one will dare to fight a dictator in our region after the world’s shameful stance in Aleppo.
To understand what the Syrian regime is plotting against Lebanon, we should contemplate Assad’s most recent statements. He said: “Lebanon cannot be immune from the fires that flare up around it and adopt a ‘self-distancing policy.’” He also dubbed Michel Aoun’s election as a president of Lebanon “a victory for both Lebanon and Syria.”
Assad made these statements as he sent his mufti, Ahmad Hassoun, on a suspicious visit to Lebanon where he was received by Aoun and the Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi. And this meeting came despite all the bloodshed by the Syrian regime in both Syria and Lebanon. This Syrian political swoop coincides with the failure to form a new Cabinet for Lebanon. So, have Hassoun’s visit and Assad’s statements caused confusion at Lebanon’s Baabda Presidential Palace? And are we heading for an alliance with the victorious killer of Damascus?
Division over Syria
Most likely, it will not be that simple, but such an alliance is not ruled out either. Amid the obvious Lebanese division over the situation in Syria, the so-called “self-distancing policy” is not quite so distancing as is claimed. Hezbollah is heavily involved in the ongoing fighting in Syria, while the Aoun movement, particularly through Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, is feeding the local division regarding relations with the Arab countries and antagonizing the people against the refugees who flee Assad’s Syria to Lebanon.
Taken this into consideration, what are the prospects for Syrian-Lebanese relations, especially given that a Lebanese party is taking part in the killing and displacement of people of Aleppo?
Undoubtedly, Assad will leave no stone unturned to bring the Syrian influence back in Lebanon. He personally wants revenge for the humiliating exit of his troops in 2005. So he will endeavor to prove his regime’s powerful influence in Lebanon in spite of the huge weakness it suffered in recent years.
This Syrian swoop is primarily courting the president of the republic, as Damascus sees the prime minister-designate its arch enemy. And here is where Syrian politics collide with the Lebanese division, given the fact that many Lebanese people reject Bashar Assad, while the Lebanese president and his camp show keenness for resuming strong ties with Damascus.
The Aleppo tragedy predicts that the victory of the Damascus-Tehran-Moscow killer coalition will make weak leaders and officials easily subject to the will of the powerful, regardless of dignity or values. These weak officials will not feel the shame for the blood of Aleppo victims and will find a way to clinch suspicious deals in a world that does not give any importance to the cries of the weak.
This challenge is threatening Lebanon’s new era, and countering it is not an easy mission, while failing to handle it will worsen the situation in Lebanon.
• Diana Moukalled is a veteran journalist with extensive experience in both traditional and new media. She is also a columnist and freelance documentary producer. She can be reached on Twitter @dianamoukalled.
