While the world remained obsessed with Panama Leaks, there was little mention of growing US-India closeness in the area of military cooperation.
The United States and India have signed a preliminary agreement Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), which would ultimately lead to the Strategic Logistic Agreement in future. This marks a new era in strategic partnership between the two sides related to sharing of military logistics, purchase of military hardware, maritime security and the Indian role in Obama’s Asia pivot to contain China’s position in the region.
While India considers security alliance with the US as independent of its relationship with traditional partners like Russia, it will have a difficult task to explain its stance to China. The US-India logistics agreement will further cement the perception that India is a front-line state in US efforts to neutralize China’s assertiveness in South Pacific and Indian Ocean region. While Modi has made consistent efforts to reach out to China since 2014, both countries have had little success in closing their outstanding border disputes.
Pakistan will downplay the US-India pact at its own peril, as it could have far reaching consequences on India’s influence in regional security matters. The US pushed ahead with its deal with India even though Pakistan had flagged a concern that US-India partnership is leading to a strategic imbalance in South Asia. Despite its political instability and terrorism-related challenges, China realizes that its long-term friend Pakistan could prove to be an important asset for taming Indian ambitions. In the form of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China has already pledged an investment of $46 billion in the country’s infrastructure that will also directly connect China with the Indian Ocean for more muscle in Central and South Asia.
Pakistan and China have also recently kicked off one of their biggest joint military exercises in decades to enhance bilateral relations and promote long-term engagement of their security forces. Military cooperation between the two neighbors has deepened over the years and this is their fourth such joint exercise since 2004. They are also working closely on deals related to military hardware to reduce Pakistan’s reliance on traditional western suppliers.
These Chinese efforts symbolize the all-weather Pakistan-China friendship and signal China’s intention to stand by Pakistan economically, militarily and diplomatically in case its ties with the US face a major deterioration. In the run-up to US presidential elections, Republican front-runner Trump has called for Indian intervention to deal with Pakistan if it becomes “unstable” and previously demanded a cut in US aid for the country.
In the coming months, it would be interesting to see how India plays the balancing act to improve its ties with China, while also being part of the nexus with US and Japan for enhanced security role in the region. Meanwhile, Pakistan should move beyond a US-centric foreign policy to explore possibilities of strengthening ties with Russia, which could complement its relationship with China and pose a roadblock to Indian interests.
