The results of assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana — arguably the first test by fire of the Narendra Modi government, which won an unprecedented mandate in the Indian general elections just five months ago — will be out on Oct. 19. But it seems that the Indian National Congress, which has been ruling the two states for 15 and ten years respectively, has already thrown in the towel.

This is evident by the fact that the mother-son Gandhi duo — Sonia and Rahul — has addressed just four election rallies in total in Maharashtra, in contrast to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s over twenty in the big state which sends 48 MPs to the 543-member Lok Sabha.

By all accounts — surveys, opinion polls and analyses of political pundits — it would be a mission impossible for the Congress party to even emerge as the single largest party in the two states, leave alone the tall claims of the party retaining power.

This would mean further humiliation for Indian’s Grand Old Party — the Congress. But wait! Before one jumps to any conclusion, is the Congress that foolish? Is the Congress party so dejected and so demoralized that it has conceded defeat (particularly in Maharashtra) even before the first vote was cast on Oct. 15? Or, is there some method in the apparent madness of the Congress party?

This writer would go for the last scenario. There is a definite method in the political/electoral strategy of the Congress party. There are possible scenarios wherein the Congress may still have the last laugh at the expense of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s sole poster boy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Here is how. Modi has plunged himself headlong into the assembly polls, though the elections pertained to only two of the 29 Indian states. This is an unusual track record by a sitting prime minister. No prime minister ever in the history of independent India since 1947 has campaigned so hard for elections in just two states as Modi has. This fact has not gone unnoticed by the Congress.

Thus, in a way, Modi has turned the assembly polls into a referendum on himself. The stakes are really high for Modi in particular and the BJP in general. As for the Congress, it knows in the heart of its hearts that it is quite a Herculean task to claw back to electoral victory after its worst-ever performance in the general elections just five months ago.

But no political party can be so naïve to give electoral victory to its archrival on a platter. One cannot expect such a behavior from a shrewd party like the Congress.

The only logical explanation for the top Congress leadership turning up a low key campaigning in Maharashtra and Haryana, as against Modi’s strategy of carpet bombing the two states with his election rallies, is that the Congress is deliberately allowing Modi to rush in even as its top leadership maintains a low profile.

There is yet another reason about the high stakes for Modi and comparatively much lower stakes for the Congress. In both Maharashtra and Haryana, the BJP is going it alone. Such is Modi’s blind faith in himself that he has gone to the extent of even severing its 25-year-old alliance with the like-minded Hindu nationalist party Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.

In Haryana too the BJP spurned any alliance talk with the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), which is in a resurgent mode despite its top leader and former Haryana Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala, 79, being in jail, serving a 10-year sentence after being convicted in a corruption case last year.

Therefore, the moral of the story is simple: It is not BJP versus Congress but Modi versus the rest of India. If Modi wins on his own steam in both Maharashtra and Haryana, it would not, after all, be such a superlative achievement. One doesn’t care for provincial trophies after winning the national championship.

But if Modi loses in the sense that his party is unable to form government in either of the two states then it is he and he alone who loses face.

There is a strong likelihood of both the states turning up a fractured verdict and throwing up hung assemblies in both the states. If this indeed happens on Oct. 19, then it will inevitably make the post-results scenario very interesting. Needless to say that the Congress will stop at nothing in preventing the BJP from forming government in Maharashtra and Haryana in the event of a fractured mandate.

In this manner the Congress can be victorious even in its defeat. This seems to be the Congress strategy.