Let’s first get one thing out of the way. The Brexit referendum is not legally binding. In case the majority goes in for getting out the Cameron government does not have to abide by it. To all intents and purposes it is a stand-alone opinion poll and an exercise in letting off some steam.
Morally, you might think the government in power would democratically bend to the public will but if governments did that life would be a four-leaved clover.
If you recall the Scottish referendum on independence in 2014 and how close it was called and then it fell away to reality by 55 to 45 much the same is likely to happen today.
Putting parochial emotion aside for a moment and thinking of the two equally uneasy options the killing of Jo Cox is certain to play on the minds of the undecided. This sort of violence goes against the traditional British sense of fair-play and the fact that the killer shouted in court over the freedom of Britain being his reason for killing the Yorkshire representative is certain to maintain its shock value. It also being her birthday adds to the poignancy.
Death by gunfire is not a British thing. Just not done.
Also, most Brits are uncomfortable with the shabby and clumsy approach to the serious issue of staying in or walking away from the EU by both sides. It is more tacky than tactical and the average citizen is torn between an atavistic desire for marching to its own drumbeat and the fact that economically walking away could break the camel’s back with 350 billion pounds at stake in commercial concessions if one sneaks out from under the EU umbrella.
Until the Cox killing the anti-EU brigade had a pretty easy time underscoring the uselessness of being in the EU. It has failed to come to any consensus on economic policies, was absolutely appalling in handling the Greek crisis and the echo in Portugal and Spain.
In the political arena it could come to no common ground in handling the refugee problem so asking why anyone should want to continue membership had grounds.
But Britain is no longer an empire. Nor is there a backup Plan B if things go south. You may well be an island but you don’t want to be isolated. Using passion and emotion and working on sentiment is heartening but the void created by getting out will cause a fair amount of grief and adjustment. Not to mention hundreds of jobs.
Neither the pro or anti faction know what the future would hold if they won. The projections have been vain, personal and childlike. Downmarket politicians making brownie points on treacly patriotism have had their moments in the sun but they have not one of them spoken about the means to handle the negative fallout. The call to regain border control might strike a chord in the British mind but it is this free pass that fuels commerce.
Also, it is not something that can be done overnight. There is a cost to getting out and prematurely killing ongoing multilateral and bilateral projects in the works.
Come tomorrow and the rhetoric will die away as reality sets in. To stay and waffle on in an EU club that is not yet got an act together or to step aside and risk being ostracized at a time when the specter of global recession is raising its ugly head.
The present assessment is 52 to 48 for but by tonight the gap should widen. It will be very surprising if the British opt for nationalism and emotion before pragmatism. An EU with a wheel off is still a better bet than being marooned on an island whose neighbors won’t forget being dumped.
The one good thing is that either way the British referendum will wake up the EU to becoming a more relevant and decisive entity than the plasticine blob it is at present.
And when the hurly burly is done and the battle lost or won it doesn’t matter if there is thunder, lightning or rain, the referendum doesn’t have to be accepted by the government or ratified by the Queen.
Way I see it and I could be wrong give it 55 to 45 in favor of the status quo, clumsy and oafish and unwieldy as the EU is.
Morally, you might think the government in power would democratically bend to the public will but if governments did that life would be a four-leaved clover.
If you recall the Scottish referendum on independence in 2014 and how close it was called and then it fell away to reality by 55 to 45 much the same is likely to happen today.
Putting parochial emotion aside for a moment and thinking of the two equally uneasy options the killing of Jo Cox is certain to play on the minds of the undecided. This sort of violence goes against the traditional British sense of fair-play and the fact that the killer shouted in court over the freedom of Britain being his reason for killing the Yorkshire representative is certain to maintain its shock value. It also being her birthday adds to the poignancy.
Death by gunfire is not a British thing. Just not done.
Also, most Brits are uncomfortable with the shabby and clumsy approach to the serious issue of staying in or walking away from the EU by both sides. It is more tacky than tactical and the average citizen is torn between an atavistic desire for marching to its own drumbeat and the fact that economically walking away could break the camel’s back with 350 billion pounds at stake in commercial concessions if one sneaks out from under the EU umbrella.
Until the Cox killing the anti-EU brigade had a pretty easy time underscoring the uselessness of being in the EU. It has failed to come to any consensus on economic policies, was absolutely appalling in handling the Greek crisis and the echo in Portugal and Spain.
In the political arena it could come to no common ground in handling the refugee problem so asking why anyone should want to continue membership had grounds.
But Britain is no longer an empire. Nor is there a backup Plan B if things go south. You may well be an island but you don’t want to be isolated. Using passion and emotion and working on sentiment is heartening but the void created by getting out will cause a fair amount of grief and adjustment. Not to mention hundreds of jobs.
Neither the pro or anti faction know what the future would hold if they won. The projections have been vain, personal and childlike. Downmarket politicians making brownie points on treacly patriotism have had their moments in the sun but they have not one of them spoken about the means to handle the negative fallout. The call to regain border control might strike a chord in the British mind but it is this free pass that fuels commerce.
Also, it is not something that can be done overnight. There is a cost to getting out and prematurely killing ongoing multilateral and bilateral projects in the works.
Come tomorrow and the rhetoric will die away as reality sets in. To stay and waffle on in an EU club that is not yet got an act together or to step aside and risk being ostracized at a time when the specter of global recession is raising its ugly head.
The present assessment is 52 to 48 for but by tonight the gap should widen. It will be very surprising if the British opt for nationalism and emotion before pragmatism. An EU with a wheel off is still a better bet than being marooned on an island whose neighbors won’t forget being dumped.
The one good thing is that either way the British referendum will wake up the EU to becoming a more relevant and decisive entity than the plasticine blob it is at present.
And when the hurly burly is done and the battle lost or won it doesn’t matter if there is thunder, lightning or rain, the referendum doesn’t have to be accepted by the government or ratified by the Queen.
Way I see it and I could be wrong give it 55 to 45 in favor of the status quo, clumsy and oafish and unwieldy as the EU is.
