When the World Cup draw took place last December a lot of pundits were quick to point out Holland as possible victims of an upset when they were drawn alongside champions Spain, Chile and Costa Rica. At the time the South American side had already impressed a lot of people by playing England out of the park at Wembley and it looked quite unlikely the Spaniards would suffer a meltdown. Six months later, La Furia is down and out and Holland are one of the few teams that will arrive at the round of the 16 boasting a 100% record at the group stages.

That obviously will not guarantee their survival at the knockout stages but one can’t deny the psychological boost it can give to the Dutch players. Under the guidance of manager Louis Van Gaal they have bounced back from a horrendous Euro 2012 campaign — no wins in three games and a lot of public spats among players — to smooth ride in the European World Cup qualifiers. But even that was dwarfed by the reinvention Holland had to go through in order to deal with what could have been a killer blow to their project: Kevin Strootman’s knee implosion in March meant Van Gaal lost his imperious box-to-box man who underpinned his whole strategy.

With the clock ticking, the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich commander had to think fast and his solution was to simply ditch the Dutch’s apparently eternal commitment to offensive formations. Van Gaal ditched Holland’s beloved 4-3-3 formation and instead brought a system that used five defenders as a means to make for the absence of Strootman at the same time it intended to clog the spaces in order to face Spain. He didn’t even blink when the Dutch media lambasted him for the decision and couldn’t hide his satisfaction when his boys thumped Spain 5-1 in Salvador.

That game, however, did not hide some inconvenient truths. Firstly, Spain had precious chances in the first half and if not for David Silva’s attempt to chip Jasper Cillesen La Furia could have gone 2-0 up at the Fonte Nova. The second point is more crucial: Van Gaal’s 5-3-2 is tailor-made for the games Holland can afford to play counter-attacking football instead of taking the initiative. It suited them wonders against the Spaniards and Chile, but in the Australia game things went not that good and Memphis Depay’s winner happened and didn’t hide the perils Holland endured in Porto Alegre. More composure from the Australians could have won the game and turned Group B into a much tighter affair.

With that in mind, it will be very interesting to see which Holland will turn up to face Mexico on Sunday. The game in Fortaleza poses questions to Van Gaal. These are not opponents that will be tempted to go all guns blazing against an opponent that has this formidable striking force in the form of Arjen Robben and Robin Van Persie. The Mexicans will only go for it if they smell blood, just like they did with Brazil but the fact is that Miguel Herrera’s team lacks more quality to finish opponents. It is not a huge exercise in imagination to predict Mexico being happy to wait for Holland. Van Gaal will likely be given the white pieces in this huge game of chess. So far, he played much better in black, with his team scoring 10 goals.

It would be unfair not recognize another European team that has defied expectations in Brazil. France could not have arrived more deflated after stumbling across the finish in qualifying and losing their most influential player, Franck Ribery. Instead, they bossed Group E with such authority to put five goals past seeds Switzerland, more than the three scored against linchpins Honduras. They face on Wednesday an Ecuadorian team needing a win to go through the next stage and that should prove an interesting match in a World Cup largely dominated by Latin American teams. Ecuador will launch themselves against the French and will test Didier Deschamps’ men, but the resurgence of Karim Benzema offers a lot of confidence to Les Bleus.

Finally a word on Brazil. Their 4-1 victory over Cameroon triggered a huge sigh of relief across the host country but it did not mask serious problems. Brazil had their worst first 45 minutes in recent times and looked very exposed against opponent that had nothing do in the tournament anymore. The “biting” midfield Brazil are supposed to have to make Scolari’s system work was toothless and only the departure of Paulinho, replaced by Fernandinho, changed things. Neymar once again called the responsibility and scored two vital goals but the interesting thing was to see Scolari finally recognizing tactical systems have to be organic. With Luiz Gustavo flanked by Ramires and Fernandinho Brazil had more bite and somehow allowed Oscar more space. Fred scored his first goal and avoided being the first Brazil No. 9 to reach a three game dry spell in the World Cup but the Seleção will have to play much better on Saturday, when they host Chile in Belo Horizonte.

History is quite generous to Brazil, who won all three games against their neighbors in World Cups, the most recent in 2010 (3-0). But that will not be playing too much in the minds of Jorge Sampaoli’s men. The hosts will have to shine to win this one.

(Fernando Duarte is a Brazilian football writer and author of “Shocking Brazil: Six Games That Shook the World Cup” Birlinn Books.)