A 12-hour cease-fire entered into force between Israel and Hamas. Of course, the respite came as a result of the diplomacy push for a lasting truce and after both sides began to realize that they need to rethink their positions. The current Israeli Operation Protective Edge against Gaza reminds us of its forerunners (Operation Cast Lead in 2008 and Operation Pillar of Defense in 2012) where Hamas won’t back down and Israel inflict huge toll on the Palestinians people without changing the attitude of Hamas. The question in this case is what Israel could hope to achieve.
After more than two weeks of Israeli attack on Gaza, it is important to ask whether Hamas and Israel have reached a conclusion that this war is futile. With more than 890 Palestinians dead and 37 Israeli soldiers killed, I wonder if the rising number of deaths has created the conditions for de-escalation. If both Hamas and Israel are rational actors, then they should have reached a tipping point where cost outweighs benefit.
As for Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enjoys a huge public support to continue the attack on Gaza. Unlike previous operations in 2008 and in 2012, Israel is carrying out this operation in somehow comfortable regional and international environment. The Arab world is fraught with other deadly crises. Moreover, key Western countries support Israel in the latter’s declared attempt to put an end to the threats posed by Hamas’ rockets. And yet, this is by no means a blank check. The international pressure on Israel is building on and Hamas has gained sympathy among the Arabs. For all practical reasons, Israelis should understand that the perfect security that they are seeking will not materialize short of lifting the siege on Gaza and make peace with the Palestinians. If Israel fails to act according to this logic, it risks another war in a few years to come.
For this reason, the Operation Protective Edge is paling out almost like the first one of 2008. With the huge civilian toll, soon the international community may ask as whether Israel is indifferent to the killing of hundreds of innocent civilians. After the Operation Cast Lead, Israel was condemned for committing war crimes. This time around, Israel may not be able to get off the hook. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay said a few days ago that part of Israeli attacks raise “a strong possibility that international law has been violated in a manner that could amount to war crimes.”
But also, the Israeli society may soon ask tough questions that Netanyahu will have hard time answering. In the past two operations, the questions were like: Would Hamas fall apart? Would the Palestinians hold Hamas accountable for the armed clashes with Israel? In each of the two episodes, the answers were the same. Hamas has survived and so has its ability to launch rocket against Israeli targets. On top of that, it seems that the people of Gaza support Hamas’ aim of brining an end to the siege.
That said, I believe that the efforts to turn this cease-fire into a permanent one is way favorable, which can only last for a short period of time. The day after the truce is the hardest because it is not yet clear that the mediators understand that the root cause of Hamas action is basically the siege imposed on Gaza. This is where the international community should pay attention or face another failure.
Perhaps, one should also compare between the West Bank and Gaza. The question then is: Why the West Bank is relatively quiet whereas Gaza is not? My kneejerk answer is that the West Bank is not under siege the way Gaza has been over the last eight years. Palestinians of the West Bank are economically better off. For this reason, the most important point is that the international community should be thinking about the day after the truce. Will the residents of Gaza continue this miserable economic life caused by the siege? If the answer is in the affirmative, then another round of fighting is a matter of time.
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