President Vladimir Putin is taking a huge risk by embroiling his army in Syria to protect Assad from a defeat that is not far from certain.
Just a few days ago, Russia called for a military cooperation with the United States to avert unintended incidents that could result from Russia’s buildup in Syria. The Russian step has to do with a new reading in Moscow that Assad is losing ground and that the Iranians are pursuing different objectives in Syria. Hence, Russia will be better off if it sends boots on the ground so that its interest will be taken into consideration over time.
While the US has backed a key role for Russia in reaching a peaceful settlement in Syria, the new Russian step has changed the rules of the game. President Obama expressed his anger at the Russians for doubling down on forces in Syria. Obama made it perfectly clear that his country will “be engaging Russia to let them know that you can’t continue to double-down on a strategy that is doomed to failure.”
To be sure, Russia denies that it has been helping to build Assad’s army in the fight in Syria. Russia officials are adamant that their country is not part of the day-to-day fight in Syria. And yet, Moscow has been critical of the US strategy in battling Daesh. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on other countries to join Moscow in a more efficient strategy against Daesh. Not surprisingly, the Russians have been trying to have others buy into the argument that Assad’s forces are the most reliable and efficient in the fight against Daesh. That said, the Russians have a hard time explaining why Assad forces have not fought Daesh in the first place. The argument that Daesh has been a useful tool for Assad is, to say the least, obliquities in this part of the world.
Not a while ago, many observers thought that Putin was tired of Assad’s inability to make any difference in the conflict. Therefore, Moscow was looked at to lead a political process to remove Assad from power. Indeed, removing Assad can be useful for the purpose of battling terrorism. But far from doing that, it seems Russia is going to prop up Assad. Lavrov appeared defiant when he said that his country “will continue to supply it to the Syrian government in order to ensure its proper combat readiness in its fight against terrorism.”
Some in the US support confronting the Russians inside Syria while others advocate a kind of cooperation with Russia to fight Daesh. At the end, it is the administration’s objective to enlist as many states as possible to fight Daesh. But those who adopt the second position fail to take into account that Russia will take advantage of its presence in Syria to attack the opposition while using Daesh as a cover.
Over the last few weeks the Russians have shown their cards. Their top priority is to keep Assad in power and not to fight Daesh. It is hard to avoid the realization that Moscow would not have interfered in this negative way in the first place had the American administration showed determination to bring about a change in Syria.
