Chaos in Afghanistan continues to strain Pakistan-US ties

Pakistan has been struggling to improve its bilateral ties with the United States. The continuation of asymmetrical warfare in Afghanistan undermines the country’s constructive initiatives to pacify the Americans and ease their distrust. In addition, the trends in regional and global politics are not favorable to stimulating their traditional strategic alliance.

Pakistanis are jubilant over the killing of Mullah Fazlullah, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, which carried out lethal attacks against the Pakistani security forces and innocent civilians. He was killed by an American drone strike in the Afghan province of Kunar, near the Pakistani border. His death has not changed much between Washington and Islamabad, however. The mistrust continues because Islamabad fails to reciprocate by accommodating American concerns over the Haqqani network.

The Taliban refusal to extend the June 15-17 Eid cease-fire disappointed the Americans and their allies in Afghanistan. It reinforces the Taliban’s stance that without the withdrawal of all US-led foreign forces, it will not be a part of a peace process aimed at ending the war in Afghanistan.

The Americans were confident that they could engage the Taliban directly in the dialogue process. At the beginning of June 2018, American commander Gen. John Nicholson claimed that “channels of dialogue” were open. But the Taliban seems indecisive about starting a dialogue with the Americans or the government of President Ashraf Ghani.

Currently, the Taliban insists on talking with the Americans directly and is averse to discussions with Ghani’s government. This stance is not acceptable to the Americans because they support the Afghan-led peace process. Lisa Curtis, who is in charge of Afghanistan and South Asia policy at the US National Security Council, categorically stated: “The United States is ready to participate in the discussion but we cannot serve as a substitute for the Afghan government and the Afghan people.”

A critical examination of the past 10 months of developments in Afghanistan reveals that US and NATO troops have failed to execute President Donald Trump’s “New Plan for South Asia and Afghanistan,” which was announced on August 21, 2017. The deployment of an additional 4,000 troops and a shift in combat strategy have failed to yield any positive consequences.

Maintaining the secrecy of military tactics and the freedom of local commanders in Afghanistan to make decisions failed to pacify the Taliban resistance. The Trump administration is frustrated due to the group’s resilience and determination to pursue its objectives in the battle-weary country. The powerlessness of US-led NATO forces to accomplish their objectives negatively influences bilateral relations between Washington and Islamabad.

The Trump administration has once again repeated its concerns over the noncompliance of Pakistan and demanded indisputable cooperation against the Afghan Taliban. Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Alice G. Wells stated on June 22, 2018: “Pakistan is on notice that we expect its unequivocal cooperation ending sanctuaries that the Taliban have enjoyed since the remnants of their toppled regime fled into Pakistan in 2001.”

The Americans are frustrated due to the Afghan Taliban’s operational successes, even in the northern parts of the country, and increasing attacks by Daesh. “Equally — if not more troubling — IS Khorasan has increased the pace and scope of its attacks against urban targets, often with a devastating civilian toll,” said Wells, referring to a group thought to include senior members of Al-Qaeda.

Ironically, the Americans are making Pakistan a scapegoat for their failure in Afghanistan despite the latter’s assistance in the war on terror for 17 years. Hence, they do not accept Pakistan’s explanation that it is not sheltering the terrorist groups.

Islamabad has admitted openly its limitations in influencing the decision-making processes of the warring Afghan factions to comply entirely with the Americans’ policy in Afghanistan. It is working closely with Kabul. Pakistan’s Army chief recently met Ghani in an effort to replace the distrust with reliable strategic cooperation.

As a neighboring state, Pakistan has a legitimate interest in Afghanistan’s political stability. The continuation of anarchy obviously has a devastating spillover effect on Pakistan. Thus, candid collaboration by law-enforcement agencies on both sides is imperative to keep in check the radicalized transnational militant groups in the region.

Pakistan needs the assistance of the Afghan Armed Forces and US-led NATO forces to avoid cross-border attacks by militants. Similarly, the Americans and Afghan government expect Pakistan to help eliminate the Afghan Taliban, particularly the Haqqani network’s safe hideouts in Pakistani territory.

The Americans are mistaken in thinking that Islamabad can play a decisive role in ending the Taliban insurgency. They think that it is controlled from sanctuaries inside Pakistani borders, which is not correct. The Afghan Taliban is not depended on Pakistan’s support. It controls more than 50 per cent of Afghanistan and therefore does not require hideouts in Pakistan to sustain the insurgency against the foreign forces and Kabul.

In summary, the Taliban has increased the intensity of attacks on the Afghan security forces. The upsurge in its military operations also increases the vulnerability of the US-led foreign forces and negatively influences the Pakistan-US relationship.

—   Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an analyst and professor with the School of Politics and International Relations at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad.

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