IRAQI Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi’s recent political awakening is the most positive development the embattled country has seen since it was invaded by the US in 2003.
Triggered by spontaneous public protests, in mostly Shiite populated areas, over rampant corruption and poor public services, Al-Abadi responded by unveiling an unprecedented package of political and economic reforms. His efforts have been backed by the parliament and were received with enthusiasm by the public and a number of key political and spiritual figures on the fragmented Iraqi scene.
His bold agenda included decisions to sack all three vice presidents as well as his deputies, in addition to reducing the size of the Cabinet. Most importantly perhaps is his move to cancel sectarian and party quota appointments at the state’s highest positions, something that could incite influential power brokers but could put the country on the long road of national healing. It’s a risk that Al-Abadi seems to be ready to take having gained the support of the highest Shiite spiritual leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani.
On its part, the parliament adopted the conclusions of a sub-committee that investigated the fall of Mosul last year and which pointed the finger at top Iraqi politicians and military brass including former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki. The parliamentary findings were submitted to the state’s prosecutor who is yet to decide on the fate of Al-Maliki and others. An independent judicial commission has been formed and will investigate major corruption claims. If tried and found guilty Al-Maliki, one of the most controversial figures in Iraqi politics, could face a long prison sentence. On his part Al-Maliki, who flew to Tehran for consultations, has denied the charges and accused Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan of facilitating the fall of Mosul.
The protests, which extended from Basra in the south to Baghdad and its environs, were largely peaceful and non- sectarian in nature. The protesters waved the Iraqi flag and called for prosecuting corrupt politicians who had squandered the country’s wealth. It was interesting that many protesters demanded an end to Iran’s interference in Iraqi affairs.
Under Al-Maliki, who governed Iraq with an iron fist from 2006 to 2014, the Iraqi state grew weaker and dysfunctional. Iraq had become one of the most corrupt countries in the world, ranked at 170 by the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), ahead of South Sudan, Afghanistan and Somalia. Furthermore, Iran’s influence over the Baghdad government deepened under Al-Maliki who is accused of carrying out a sectarian agenda that marginalized the Sunni minority and tested relations with Iraqi Kurdistan. He has been accused of hunting down his political opponents and of running death squads that murdered hundreds.
His sectarian policies paved the ground for the rapid expansion of extremist militants, especially Daesh, which managed to control large areas of western and northwestern Iraq, culminating in the takeover of Mosul last June. That catastrophic event exposed the fragility and demoralization of the Iraqi Army, which lacked leadership and a national creed. At the end Al-Maliki lost the support of the conservative religious parties, in addition to the US and even Iran.
Al-Abadi was almost certainly Al-Maliki’s choice. Both belong to the pro-Iran Al-Dawa party, which is headed by Al-Maliki. The latter had hoped to continue to run things after he was appointed vice president. Even after his ouster he still controls 93 seats in the parliament.
But Al-Abadi soon realized that Iraq was on the brink of collapse as a result of sectarian divisions, rampant corruption, failing public services, poor relations between Irbil and Baghdad, ill-trained army and the looming threat by Daesh. For him to rally the Iraqi people behind him he had to demolish Al-Maliki’s legacy of corruption and sectarianism. The public protests provided him with an opportunity.
But Al-Abadi must brace himself for a backlash, especially from influential behind-the-scene players. The question is can he carry out his reforms agenda to the end? The fact that religious Shiite parties are divided may help him in the short run. He has the backing of Al Sistani and the charismatic cleric, Muqtada Al Sadr, among others. But the biggest challenge will be to restructure the judiciary if his pledge to hunt down and prosecute corrupt officials is to be taken seriously.
Al-Maliki is already fighting back. He has important influence over the Shiite militias, the Popular Mobilization, who are supporting the army’s campaign to liberate Al-Ramadi and Fallujah in Al-Anbar province from Daesh militants. The militias have been accused of committing atrocities against the Sunnis and are being led by Iranian advisers.
For Al-Abadi to succeed he must first win the confrontation between pro-Iran factions, under Al-Maliki, and the nationalist flank that is supported by the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council and the Sadri movement and backed by Shiite clerical authorities in Najaf. The outcome of this showdown could determine the future and integrity of Iraq.
