Following the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen climate change conference (COP 15) to reach a deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, all parties have been negotiating for a new and acceptable agreement by 2015, to be implemented in 2020. However, the outcome of these negotiations now depends on political leaders who will meet in Paris for the COP 21 later this month.

The main objective of the Paris climate talks is to achieve a legal and binding international agreement on climate and to maintain the global warming rate of less than two degrees Celsius.

Scientists predict that unless the world takes serious steps to control global warming, climate change will cause serious damage to infrastructure, soil, food, water resources, and human health. The problems caused by climate change are likely to have significant social effects such as mass migration and, as a result, unrest and conflicts. The Syrian conflict provides a clear example. Climate change was the initial trigger for the conflict as Syria witnessed the worst drought recorded in the period between 2006 and 2011 as a result of which the soil deteriorated and farmers were forced to abandon their farms and villages and move toward cities, creating political and economic pressures and social instability leading to the outbreak of the civil war.

With regard to the Arab Gulf region, the GCC countries account for less than 2.4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, global climate change will have a severe negative environmental impact on the region. Rising temperatures will affect agriculture and water resources; evaporation will increase and as a result power needs will rise as the demand for air-conditioning and cooling devices goes up. Rising sea levels on the Red Sea, the Arabian Gulf and the Indian Ocean and the consequent risk of salinization of soil and coastal groundwater aquifers pose a growing threat; besides, countries like Bahrain and Qatar may lose a large part of their coastal area to the sea. In addition, the capacity of the Arab countries to adapt to resolve these problems is poor. In October 2015, torrential rains hit a number of Arab countries and resulted in human fatalities and destruction of infrastructure.

In general, the ability of the developing countries to adapt in order to combat climate change problems is weak in comparison to developed countries. The current political and economic situation in the region is extremely complex. Some countries may not wish to participate in resolving climate change issues because they have other very critical priorities like tackling civil war and internal instability, such as in the case of Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Libya. Some other countries do not wish to be part of a UN agreement on climate, fearing that it may violate national sovereignty. But the Paris Agreement will be based on voluntary contributions to be provided by national governments and will include rules only for the monitoring and reporting of emissions, in order to enhance transparency and confidence.

The Paris climate talks are of particular importance for the GCC countries because of the issue of fossil fuels, which form the backbone of the Gulf economies. The industrial, energy and agricultural sectors globally depend almost entirely on fossil fuels and generate a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, any actions taken in this regard may affect the demand for fossil fuels, the main source of carbon dioxide emissions, especially in the countries that adopt laws and policies to reduce emissions due to the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). This, in turn, will eventually severely impact the economies of the oil-rich Gulf countries. The Convention on Climate Change is a major challenge for countries that rely on fossil fuels as a major source of revenue.

Thus, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia stresses the importance of climate mitigation policies that do not compromise the economic growth and prosperity in developing countries even as it opposes the setting of a date to end the use of fossil fuels. It lays emphasis on policies, which help in the reduction of greenhouse gases without adversely affecting social development. It is worth mentioning that, like Saudi Arabia, some developed countries too have sought to protect their main energy or income source: For example, the UK which took a number of measures to protect its coal industry.

It is worth mentioning that the Saudi government has ambitious plans to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by building more solar power systems as well as the world’s biggest carbon capture and storage plant. In addition, it aims to use more natural gas as well as set new standards to make buildings and cars more energy efficient.

It is important that the Gulf countries work together with other developing and oil-rich countries to:

• Achieve a comprehensive binding treaty that provides clear targets that are respected by all parties to be based upon the acknowledged principle of the “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities.”

• Ensure that the international community is committed to help the Gulf countries and other affected countries financially in addressing climate change and its impact without exposing the poor to risk.

• Build a partnership to resolve the sticking points in the negotiations. No single country can achieve any tangible progress in the area of climate change without partnering with all stakeholders at the international and regional level, but especially on the local level. This is the basis of good governance in any field. It is sufficient here to recall that the 17th goal in the Sustainable Development Goals that was adopted by all nations in September 2015 is “Partnership for the success of the goals.”

• Seek technology transfer and finance. Owning environmental friendly, clean, low emission technology in various sectors will smooth the transition toward a green and low-carbon economy that attracts new investment and creates new green jobs. In the long run, this would be a better option than asking for aid and related assistance.

In fact, there will be an opportunity in the Paris negotiations for the Gulf states to cooperate with all partners to reach an effective and comprehensive agreement that contributes to the curbing of global warming without harming the economic and social gains achieved.

• The writer is research fellow at Gulf Research Center.