The interim six-months-long pact hatched between foreign ministers of the P5+1 nations and Iran is being hailed by the US and its allies as a major step to averting a regional war. Intrusive inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities by IAEA inspectors and its pledge to restrict uranium enrichment to 5 percent and not to pursue its plutonium program will, indeed, roll back Iranian nuclear ambitions, at least temporarily. Iranian negotiators were mobbed by celebrating crowds upon their return home. And it appears that Tehran whose economy is in free-fall is set on re-joining the community of nations.
Certain US allies in the region fear the White House is engaged in throwing them under a bus with some kind of “Grand Bargain” in the offing of the type America enjoyed with the Shah, determined to turn his country into a military superpower. Gulf states still remember how Britain and the US permitted the Shah to invade and occupy three UAE islands and, in recent years, a slew of threats from Iran to block the Straits of Hormuz, set Gulf oilfields aflame and to close its airspace to airlines using the designation “Arabian Gulf.” Worse, US-led military interventions in the region as well as its failure to step-in when required have bolstered Iranian influence. Iraq, once a powerful bastion of the Sunni world, has virtually been gifted to the Iranian mullahs. Obama’s U-turn on striking Syria’s chemical weapons facilities, a betrayal of the Syrian opposition, lent power to President Bashar Assad’s elbow — and by extension Iran’s. The concerns of the Gulf States that obliterating Syria’s chemical arsenal did little to halt the civil war were cast aside. Now that the US and Iran are in the throes of a mini love-fest, Iranian negotiators will certainly be invited to participate in the upcoming Geneva-2 talks where they will root for the Assad regime. At the same time, the Obama administration has done little to stabilize Sunni states. It tried to pull the rug from under Egypt’s interim government with condemnation and cuts to military aid.
Its role in the overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi was crucial. But look at Libya today. US drone strikes in Yemen targeting “terrorists” do little except create animosity and turmoil permitting Iranian proxies a window of opportunity to establish a foothold. In principle, there’s nothing wrong with bringing-in Iran from the cold. But for the West to merely focus on its nuclear program is a similar red herring to Syria’s chemical weapons. Iran’s re-acceptance into the family of nations should involve lot more than mere IAEA inspections or charming goodwill messages from President Hassan Rowhani. Any détente with Iran should be all encompassing. The GCC countries need convincing that Tehran is now open to being a good neighbor, not with words but actions. Firstly, Iran should quit fomenting turmoil in Syria and fragile Lebanon via its proxy Hezbollah and lean heavily on Assad to step down. Secondly, it must stop funding and arming Houthi rebels and others in Yemen. Thirdly, Iran must take a hands-off approach to Bahrain to enable the island state to regain its equilibrium.
A pledge from the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that his country will no longer export weapons, cash and Shiite ideology to Sunni states would go a long way to allay the concerns of Gulf states. But don’t hold your breath. America retains its sway over the region and fattens its coffers with weapons sales to the tune of billions utilizing a policy of divide and rule. Stirring-up a Sunni-Shiite divide, while playing both sides, is in US interest. After all, a peaceful, united Middle East/Gulf devoid of major threats would soon tell US troops to take a hike. Ultimately, neither Washington nor its new best friend Tehran can be trusted. It’s, therefore, imperative for the Sunni Arab World to broaden its options and shore up its own defense capabilities. Uncle Sam, once viewed as a protector, can no more be relied upon.
But there’s many a slip between cup and lip. Iranians may be cheering the new deal but who knows what prominent hard-liners are whispering in the Supreme Leader’s ear! Likewise, there are a considerable number of US lawmakers, both Democrat and Republican, who are highly skeptical and itching to place yet more punitive sanctions on Iran. Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is practically foaming at the mouth; he describes the deal as an “historic mistake” and rejects being bound by it. The pro-Israel lobby must be working the phones to persuade its many friends in Congress to make sure Obama doesn’t have an easy ride. Obama has no executive power to cancel sanctions already in place and will require Congressional approval down the road to lift them. Whether the accord sealed in Geneva heralds a new dawn for Iranian-Western relations or turns out to be a damp squib, only time can tell.
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