There is something very wrong with the way this year has begun. Every week has brought with it an increasing number of epitaphs lamenting the collapse of civilization and the post-1945 global order. Commentators warn that the world as we know it is falling apart and there is nobody to pick up the pieces. How irresponsible of them.
No doubt there are cracks in the system. The events of the last year illustrated how a lethal cocktail of nationalism, corporatism and popular discontent bubbled to the surface. The apparent dysfunctionality of democracy as shown by shock election results, accompanied by increased international instability, had markets jittering throughout the year.
However, to allow discontent with such tremors to fester is unhelpful. Logic and reason must prevail, especially in an arena clouded with confusion and mass hysteria. It is essential that imbalances of power be corrected.
The world was picked up in the current of Pax Americana following a cataclysmic human struggle into the modern age that was characterized by two world wars. Since then, the general philosophy has been that with the US keeping the world safe, global living standards would continue to improve. As we enter 2017 with half of the world’s population — more than 3 billion people — living on less than $2.50 a day, this theory seems questionable.
Similar to the systems it sought to replace, liberal free-market ideology has not kept up with the pace of technology, and self-perpetuating privilege has isolated large groups. This has left the global distribution of wealth unsatisfactory and the world increasingly insecure.
Disenchantment with the status quo led to the two systemic shocks of the Brexit vote and the election of a bombastic reality TV star as US president. In both instances, democracy was used adeptly to channel the grievances of the forgotten, disenfranchised and afraid. However, they do not pose challenges to the world as we know it. They must be interpreted as indicators that change needs to happen, that the system has grown complacent.
Elections have served to disrupt such stagnation, illustrating changes that need to take place as opposed to heralding the end. The best way to bring about progress and prosperity is embracing different ideas, conferring dignity on the angry masses and co-opting them into a system from which they have come to feel detached.
Such commitment requires leadership, and despite recent upheavals no great power has the resources or standing to combat growing instability, violent nationalism and creeping authoritarianism other than the US. Both domestically and internationally, it must reassert its authority to create a secure environment to support universal freedoms, the rule of law, stability, and the exchange of ideas, goods, people and capital.
As with any great challenge, a villain lurks in the shadows. The great tumult in international affairs has been to the advantage of Russia, a middle-ranking power with the ambitions of a superpower. Greater encroachment into its neighbors’ affairs, a muscular foreign policy in the Middle East, and an increasingly uncanny ability to deploy sophisticated cyberattacks abroad, have projected Russian power more than any other time since the height of the Cold War.
This is not so much an outright challenge but a short-term strategy, though it is an affront to the global values that have broadly kept international peace for over half a century. This is why it must be confronted by the US. Its presidents since Bill Clinton have voiced how they intended to “reset” relationships with Moscow. Given the growing kleptocratic nature of Russian foreign policy, such an attitude of appeasement is outdated.
With the world in flux, the US must be responsive to change and present itself as a force for good in the world. For Donald Trump to continue to support insular and protectionist policies once in office, he will only aid the Kremlin’s anti-NATO and anti-globalist goals. The US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world, and could undoubtedly act to counter Russian destabilization.
The biggest incentive for Russia to bully the West is that its economy is not closely linked to the global system, making its diplomacy less vulnerable. In this context, the US must seek to pressure the rapidly militarizing Russian state by robustly working with its allies to limit Russian expansion.
Russia is a disruptive power, not a dominating one. It seeks a global system wherein the US is limited and the balance of power more multipolar. A combined use of cyber warfare alongside military and diplomatic machinations have worked for the Kremlin thus far. This preferred approach of asymmetric warfare suits the squeezed Russian economy.
However, it also highlights that it is not an unmanageable threat, and one that the world’s foremost military power, the US, can contain. Rather than rush to predict an emerging world order, it would be more helpful to emphasize that the cracks in the system must be mended in order to build a stronger future.
Just as pack-hunting animals seek out the weak and elderly, powers such as Russia look for vacuums in which to interfere. This week’s deployment of NATO forces to Poland was welcome news, given that recently Russian power has at times seemed unchallengeable. Civilization as we know it must recalibrate to cope with change, or stagnate and find itself at the mercy of the likes of Russia.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator. He also acts as an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC.
No doubt there are cracks in the system. The events of the last year illustrated how a lethal cocktail of nationalism, corporatism and popular discontent bubbled to the surface. The apparent dysfunctionality of democracy as shown by shock election results, accompanied by increased international instability, had markets jittering throughout the year.
However, to allow discontent with such tremors to fester is unhelpful. Logic and reason must prevail, especially in an arena clouded with confusion and mass hysteria. It is essential that imbalances of power be corrected.
The world was picked up in the current of Pax Americana following a cataclysmic human struggle into the modern age that was characterized by two world wars. Since then, the general philosophy has been that with the US keeping the world safe, global living standards would continue to improve. As we enter 2017 with half of the world’s population — more than 3 billion people — living on less than $2.50 a day, this theory seems questionable.
Similar to the systems it sought to replace, liberal free-market ideology has not kept up with the pace of technology, and self-perpetuating privilege has isolated large groups. This has left the global distribution of wealth unsatisfactory and the world increasingly insecure.
Disenchantment with the status quo led to the two systemic shocks of the Brexit vote and the election of a bombastic reality TV star as US president. In both instances, democracy was used adeptly to channel the grievances of the forgotten, disenfranchised and afraid. However, they do not pose challenges to the world as we know it. They must be interpreted as indicators that change needs to happen, that the system has grown complacent.
Elections have served to disrupt such stagnation, illustrating changes that need to take place as opposed to heralding the end. The best way to bring about progress and prosperity is embracing different ideas, conferring dignity on the angry masses and co-opting them into a system from which they have come to feel detached.
Such commitment requires leadership, and despite recent upheavals no great power has the resources or standing to combat growing instability, violent nationalism and creeping authoritarianism other than the US. Both domestically and internationally, it must reassert its authority to create a secure environment to support universal freedoms, the rule of law, stability, and the exchange of ideas, goods, people and capital.
As with any great challenge, a villain lurks in the shadows. The great tumult in international affairs has been to the advantage of Russia, a middle-ranking power with the ambitions of a superpower. Greater encroachment into its neighbors’ affairs, a muscular foreign policy in the Middle East, and an increasingly uncanny ability to deploy sophisticated cyberattacks abroad, have projected Russian power more than any other time since the height of the Cold War.
This is not so much an outright challenge but a short-term strategy, though it is an affront to the global values that have broadly kept international peace for over half a century. This is why it must be confronted by the US. Its presidents since Bill Clinton have voiced how they intended to “reset” relationships with Moscow. Given the growing kleptocratic nature of Russian foreign policy, such an attitude of appeasement is outdated.
With the world in flux, the US must be responsive to change and present itself as a force for good in the world. For Donald Trump to continue to support insular and protectionist policies once in office, he will only aid the Kremlin’s anti-NATO and anti-globalist goals. The US has the largest and most technologically powerful economy in the world, and could undoubtedly act to counter Russian destabilization.
The biggest incentive for Russia to bully the West is that its economy is not closely linked to the global system, making its diplomacy less vulnerable. In this context, the US must seek to pressure the rapidly militarizing Russian state by robustly working with its allies to limit Russian expansion.
Russia is a disruptive power, not a dominating one. It seeks a global system wherein the US is limited and the balance of power more multipolar. A combined use of cyber warfare alongside military and diplomatic machinations have worked for the Kremlin thus far. This preferred approach of asymmetric warfare suits the squeezed Russian economy.
However, it also highlights that it is not an unmanageable threat, and one that the world’s foremost military power, the US, can contain. Rather than rush to predict an emerging world order, it would be more helpful to emphasize that the cracks in the system must be mended in order to build a stronger future.
Just as pack-hunting animals seek out the weak and elderly, powers such as Russia look for vacuums in which to interfere. This week’s deployment of NATO forces to Poland was welcome news, given that recently Russian power has at times seemed unchallengeable. Civilization as we know it must recalibrate to cope with change, or stagnate and find itself at the mercy of the likes of Russia.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator. He also acts as an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC.
