President Barack Obama is not hopeful that a final deal with Iran over its nuclear program will be reached before the Nov. 24 deadline. He says that “big gaps” remain in the ongoing negotiations; a year after Tehran and the international community reached an interim deal to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for relief from western sanctions.
But in spite of Obama’s doubts there are signs that a last minute agreement could still be achieved. Oman hosted a two-day meeting on the issue this week and apparently some progress was made. The coming days will be crucial for reaching a deal that defines the size of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities while setting a timetable for lifting western sanctions on Tehran. Naturally the Gulf countries will be watching developments with interest.
Obama refused to comment on reports that he had sent Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a letter last week in which he called on Iran to cooperate in combating the Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq. Commentators were quick to suggest that the US administration was offering Tehran an incentive to sign the nuclear deal in return for recognizing its role in both Arab countries. But the president and his Secretary of State John Kerry said the two issues were not linked.
Obama’s foreign policy record, especially in the Middle East, is dismal. He has made many promises in the past that he was unable to keep. His commitment to realizing the two-state solution leading to the birth of a Palestinian state has faltered. He is yet to deliver on his promise to arm the moderate Syrian opposition. His critics believe that his dithering on the Syrian conflict and his failure to reign in former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki have contributed to the rise of the Islamic State.
His opponents in the US remain critical of the way he is running the war against IS and are dubious of his Iran strategy. That skepticism is shared by Israel and the Gulf countries. Failure to reach a deal with Tehran will be seen as another diplomatic stumble for Obama.
It is no wonder then that he is keen to see these negotiations succeed. While Tehran insists that it will not abandon its “nuclear rights,” a deal that keeps most of its program intact in addition to lifting western sanctions will be seen as a major victory.
Both sides would not want to think of alternatives if the deal falls through. Neither the US nor its western allies are in the mood to engage in another military conflict in the Middle East. Besides, Obama’s letter to Khamenei carries recognition of Tehran’s expanding influence in the region and its role in defusing crises in both Iraq and Syria. This is what worries his Arab allies.
A deal with Iran will be viewed with suspicion by America’s regional allies. It is true that Iran’s nuclear program will be monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which would ensure its civilian use. That would assure Iran’s neighbors, especially the Gulf countries. But the nuclear program is not the only contentious issue marring relations between Iran and its Arab neighbors.
Iran’s domination of Iraqi politics, since the US invasion of Iraq, is partly responsible for the eruption of sectarian violence in that country. Iran is Bashar Assad’s closest ally and its military and financial support of the Damascus regime has prolonged the civil war in Syria, which has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, destroyed half the country and allowed militants to infiltrate the opposition.
In addition, the Gulf countries believe Iran is directly involved in arming the Houthi rebellion in Yemen, a country that is quickly sliding toward civil war and probably partition. Iran’s meddling in internal Lebanese politics is one of the factors contributing to that country’s endemic instability.
A nuclear deal with Iran should not become the gateway to normalizing relations between Tehran and the West. Such a development will whet Iran’s appetite as a regional power player and will certainly increase Arab suspicions of its intents in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and others.
Reaching a deal with Iran over its nuclear program is important and key to assuring its neighbors. But our problem with Iran goes beyond the nuclear issue. Its interference in the internal affairs of Arab countries has stoked sectarian confrontations, which threaten to tear these countries apart. Obama’s offer to Iran to cooperate in the fight against IS will only fuel sectarian violence and agitate Sunnis.
If a deal is reached in the coming weeks it will be a major foreign policy breakthrough for Obama. It will surely pave the way for US-Iran détente. But such rapprochement will come at a hefty price for the Middle East, especially for America’s Gulf allies.
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