Egyptians have had a rough ride over the past few years. It’s been a roller-coaster ride of uncertainty combined with political, economic and social upheaval. But signs are the country is poised to enjoy relative stability, economic growth and improved international relations. While it’s true that the Jan. 25, 2011 revolution didn’t produce instantaneous western-style democracy, it could flourish along the road.
As of now, the vast majority has come to terms with that reality preferring to prioritize security and its economic benefits over serial revolutions that could hurtle Egypt in the direction of its violence-afflicted neighbors Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq.
Understanding the recent trajectory of this nation is often a conundrum for outsiders due to its complex twist and turns, but suffice it to say that the current soil isn’t conducive to democracy’s flowering as long as 26 percent of the population is officially classed as poor, 29 percent of the youth are unemployed and over a quarter are illiterate. The basic human needs of those unable to afford to put bread on the table or educate their children or have been relegated to slum dwellings must be addressed, which the government is in the process of doing.
Without decent food, health care, education and job opportunities, the word “freedom” is merely academic. What’s the use of being free to go out and protest to your heart’s content if your tummy’s rumbling or you can’t afford to pay for your child’s lifesaving operation? The first rung on the ladder to freedom is being able to walk in the streets without fear and having the wherewithal to provide for your family.
And now for the good news:
Egypt’s economy is on the up-and-up. The international ratings agency, Fitch, has upgraded the country’s rating to “B” with a stable outlook. Year-on-year growth reached 6.8 percent during the third quarter of this year — the highest since 2008. Moreover, a global development conference set for March 2015 is likely to attract serious investors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is in accord with this assessment; its review mission concluded that the economy is, indeed, in recovery following four years of slow growth.
Moreover, the government is working hard to solve the energy crisis that resulted in lengthy blackouts during the summer. Earlier this month, it signed a gas fracking contract with the US-based Apache Corporation and Shell Egypt based on the drilling of three wells in the western desert. Cairo has further been holding talks with Cyprus and Russia on importing gas and has been considering bids from companies in the field of renewable energy.
It’s no secret that subsequent to the ousting of Mursi, Egypt’s relations with certain countries were frayed. But, with the exception of Turkey, whose president’s sympathies lie with the Muslim Brotherhood, those relationships are visibly on the mend. For instance, the US has now delivered 10 Apache helicopters that were formerly withheld causing strains between the two allies and galvanized Cairo to diversify its military suppliers.
A Russian-Egyptian arms deal worth $3.5 billion was signed in September and various cooperation agreements are currently being drafted related to trade and tourism. Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and set to join Egypt in establishing a Free Trade Zone, while it is thought that Moscow will assist Cairo to rehabilitate disused factories constructed by the Soviet Union during Nasser’s era and build grain silos, opening-up jobs. It’s likely that President Putin’s planned visit to Cairo to meet with his Egyptian counterpart in the New Year will lead to even closer Egyptian-Russian ties.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sissi is quoted as saying that he’s keen to develop a strategic relationship with China and to that end he’s due to embark on a four-day visit to Beijing beginning Dec. 23.
And thanks to the mediation efforts of GCC leaderships — in particular that of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah — the frost between Cairo and Doha is beginning to thaw. For the first time since the Egyptian president’s inauguration, Qatar has sent a high-profile envoy to meet with him and has announced its commitment to close ties with Egypt “and to developing them.” A statement from Egypt’s presidency confirms the country “looks forward to a new era that ends past disagreements.”
On the political front, Egyptians will once again be asked to head for the ballot box in March 2015 to vote for parliamentary candidates; a working parliament will complete the country’s road map toward a democratic system of governance based on separation of powers.
Egypt’s journey to democracy and prosperity is one of baby steps, but it’s getting there and, unlike a year ago, there’s hope in the air. As long as the public remains optimistic and is willing to be patient just a little longer, they’ll reap great rewards. Perhaps this time next year, I’ll be writing with conviction “Egypt is back!”
