By the time you read this, the assembly elections results for the Indian states of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal and the union territory of Puducherry would have started trickling in. By the afternoon of May 19 all results are expected to be declared.
No doubt, these assembly polls are crucial as they come at a time when the Modi government completes two years in office. These results will serve as an important political weathercock and will tell which way the wind is blowing in Indian politics.
Though the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a fringe player in all but one assemblies, namely Assam, these elections will be significant to adjudge the political graph of two major national parties – the BJP and the main opposition party, the Congress. These elections, therefore, will be significant from the national perspective and the jury will be out as to how the two big political forces are performing.
If one goes by the exit polls carried out on May 16, the Congress Party’s lukewarm electoral performance continues as it is set to lose power in two states — Assam and Kerala. Moreover, as per the exit polls’ projections the Congress party and its senior alliance partner in West Bengal — the Left Front, which incidentally is its political rival in the southern state of Kerala — are going to lose to the ruling Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee.
The only saving grace for the Congress is that its pre-poll alliance with senior partner Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), is set to emerge victorious in the big southern state of Tamil Nadu. The DMK-Congress alliance is also set to form the government in the tiny union territory of neighboring Puducherry.
But then exit polls’ history in India has been rather questionable. Exit polls have more often than not gone awry and the results have often proved to be an embarrassment to the pollsters.
The latest example of the exit polls’ inaccuracy came twice last year, first in February with Delhi assembly polls and then in November with Bihar assembly polls. In the case of Bihar, arguably the most perplexing and riveting assembly polls in the history of independent India, not a single pollster got it right.
Just one private news television channel got close to predicting the actual results in Bihar but its forecast was so out of sync with projections of the rest of pollsters that this news channel never aired its findings! It released its findings only after the results were announced.
Time and again India has debated about the efficacy of exit polls. It baffles rational logic as to how data based on what a few thousand voters tell the pollsters can be taken seriously given the humongous size of the electorate in India.
The election process in the world’s largest and most populous democracy is too complicated a riddle to be solved in a few hours of process that is solely dependent on the veracity of claims made by a tiny fraction of voters to the private agencies conducting the exit polls. In fact, voters speaking to agencies conducting exit polls are known to deliberately mislead the pollsters for whatever reasons.
That’s why the exit polls are seldom accurate and reliable. Yet, exit polls continue to be a roaring business in India despite the inherent anomalies. After all, India is a news hungry nation, a fact which TRP-driven news channels take advantage of to the hilt.
Presuming that these exit polls have got it right at least this time around, it will be a cause of celebration for Modi’s BJP, which has not won a single state assembly poll since 2014, the watershed year when the Modi euphoria gripped India.
By the same logic, it would mean yet another reality check for the Congress party, if the exit polls are accurate this time.
But then exit polls are a risky business. It’s like making a blind move in a game of cards. It may or may not come true. After all, though the agencies conducting exit polls may boast of scientific methods and parameters in conducting these polls, the fact is that a sample of few thousand people (even if presuming that they have truthfully told their voting choices) cannot portray a correct picture when the actual size of the electorate is incredibly much higher.
We will get to know by the afternoon of May 19 how accurate these exit polls are.
No doubt, these assembly polls are crucial as they come at a time when the Modi government completes two years in office. These results will serve as an important political weathercock and will tell which way the wind is blowing in Indian politics.
Though the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a fringe player in all but one assemblies, namely Assam, these elections will be significant to adjudge the political graph of two major national parties – the BJP and the main opposition party, the Congress. These elections, therefore, will be significant from the national perspective and the jury will be out as to how the two big political forces are performing.
If one goes by the exit polls carried out on May 16, the Congress Party’s lukewarm electoral performance continues as it is set to lose power in two states — Assam and Kerala. Moreover, as per the exit polls’ projections the Congress party and its senior alliance partner in West Bengal — the Left Front, which incidentally is its political rival in the southern state of Kerala — are going to lose to the ruling Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee.
The only saving grace for the Congress is that its pre-poll alliance with senior partner Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), is set to emerge victorious in the big southern state of Tamil Nadu. The DMK-Congress alliance is also set to form the government in the tiny union territory of neighboring Puducherry.
But then exit polls’ history in India has been rather questionable. Exit polls have more often than not gone awry and the results have often proved to be an embarrassment to the pollsters.
The latest example of the exit polls’ inaccuracy came twice last year, first in February with Delhi assembly polls and then in November with Bihar assembly polls. In the case of Bihar, arguably the most perplexing and riveting assembly polls in the history of independent India, not a single pollster got it right.
Just one private news television channel got close to predicting the actual results in Bihar but its forecast was so out of sync with projections of the rest of pollsters that this news channel never aired its findings! It released its findings only after the results were announced.
Time and again India has debated about the efficacy of exit polls. It baffles rational logic as to how data based on what a few thousand voters tell the pollsters can be taken seriously given the humongous size of the electorate in India.
The election process in the world’s largest and most populous democracy is too complicated a riddle to be solved in a few hours of process that is solely dependent on the veracity of claims made by a tiny fraction of voters to the private agencies conducting the exit polls. In fact, voters speaking to agencies conducting exit polls are known to deliberately mislead the pollsters for whatever reasons.
That’s why the exit polls are seldom accurate and reliable. Yet, exit polls continue to be a roaring business in India despite the inherent anomalies. After all, India is a news hungry nation, a fact which TRP-driven news channels take advantage of to the hilt.
Presuming that these exit polls have got it right at least this time around, it will be a cause of celebration for Modi’s BJP, which has not won a single state assembly poll since 2014, the watershed year when the Modi euphoria gripped India.
By the same logic, it would mean yet another reality check for the Congress party, if the exit polls are accurate this time.
But then exit polls are a risky business. It’s like making a blind move in a game of cards. It may or may not come true. After all, though the agencies conducting exit polls may boast of scientific methods and parameters in conducting these polls, the fact is that a sample of few thousand people (even if presuming that they have truthfully told their voting choices) cannot portray a correct picture when the actual size of the electorate is incredibly much higher.
We will get to know by the afternoon of May 19 how accurate these exit polls are.
