HOW serious a threat is the terror group, Islamic State (IS), to India? Security experts are bitterly divided over the extent of IS influence and how to tackle this menace. Syed Asif Ibrahim — ex-chief of Intelligence Bureau dealing with internal security — believes that India is vulnerable to deadly terror attacks launched by IS and favors a blanket ban. However, Ibrahim’s contemporary in the external intelligence agency R&AW, Alok Joshi, has dismissed such talks as overestimation of danger.
“There is no widespread pull of IS in India,” claimed Joshi while confirming simultaneously that “a few stray incidents have happened and they have been tackled well.” Interestingly, both Ibrahim and Joshi were integral part of India’s effort (led by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval) to secretly negotiate the release of 46 Indian nationals kidnapped by IS in Iraq last June. Indeed, the government is also in a fix. While New Delhi successfully rescued 46 nurses with active assistance from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar, the fate of the remaining 39 Indian construction workers, captive since last year, hangs in balance. Meanwhile, an influential lobby is goading Premier Narendra Modi to take a final call on joining the international coalition against IS. Though the Indian government has not officially responded to such suggestions positively, sources privy to the development says, Modi — true to his “macho-image” — is no longer averse to the idea of actively participating in a “foot on the ground” operation against IS in the Middle East even though he had politely refused to join the coalition during his US trip.
Perhaps, the domestic ban on IS and its affiliate bodies under Unlawful Activities Prevention Act — which comes with a punishment of five years to life imprisonment — is a clear indication of the approach that the Modi government wants to adopt in dealing with the IS phenomenon. Many experts fear that this will provide the security agencies a carte blanche for a brutal witch-hunt. And there is no prize for guessing who among India’s 1.2 billion citizens will be the prime target. After all, innocent civilians (mostly Muslims) have been put behind bars across India on the pretext of confronting terrorism. Nobody can deny that India’s draconian anti-terror laws — from TADA (Terrorist and Disruptive Activities Prevention Act) to POTA (Prevention of Terrorism Act) — were grossly misused by the security apparatus that violated the dignity and human rights of fellow Indians.
Of the 77,000 TADA detainees, a whopping 72,000 were released without being charged or tried and that too after subjecting them to physical and psychological torture to extract confession illegally. Similarly, 3,500 people were held under POTA during its brief (three years) existence and a vast majority was detained arbitrarily. Modi’s very own Gujarat saw the highest number of detentions and all but one of the 287 people initially held under the law were Muslims. Even the Indian Supreme Court had acknowledged previously that unlawful imposition of grievous charges by the police causes wrongful conviction and sentencing of innocent people. According to Joshi, India’s reaction to IS radicalization effort should be more correctional than punitive keeping in mind the country’s societal challenges and demographic mix. If the Indian security establishment abandons its calibrated response against IS brain-washing methodology to tactically wean away possible target groups, no one can stop large-scale seduction of impressionable and fanatic minds into the noxious IS fold.
Joshi is bang on target because data from London- based International Center for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence reveals that influence of IS recruiting propaganda is minimal in South Asia till date. But then, from now onward, even a comment posted in social media that is interpreted by overzealous security officials as a sign of sympathy for IS will draw severe punishment, including incarceration. Surely, the Modi government’s approach to this issue will help consolidate the Hindu right-wing politics of demonizing Islam and its followers within India. But so far as external relations is concerned, wittingly or unwittingly, Modi seems to be playing into the hands of those who want the Indian military to own up for every innocent life lost in the name of collateral damage in Middle East while fighting IS.
Has anybody made an honest appraisal of how such a scenario would affect India’s relations with the Arab world? Besides, what will be the long-term repercussions on India’s crucial crude oil import from the volatile region? More importantly, one needs to be absolutely clear about the background before committing troops and logistics in the Iraq-Syria mess. Has India’s intelligence given any definitive assessment on who exactly is poised to win this war at the end of the day and above all who really holds the IS string from behind? The IS modus operandi clearly reveals that there is a hidden agenda of constructing a new political order based upon exploitation of ethno-sectarian fragmentation and tribal divisions within the Arab world under the garb of resurrecting the caliphate. Does it sound any different from Likudnik Oded Yinon’s strategic destabilization plan of inciting internecine warfare between Shiites and Sunnis across Middle East?
Since Israel’s call for mass-emigration of Jews from Europe, methodical IS expansion and the rise of ideological twin Hizb-ut-Tahrir are linked by common strategic thread, India should better keep out of a geopolitical vortex that has no clear objective or defined ending. Instead, one must examine, what exactly drags educated youths into IS insanity — a craving for incorruptible, egalitarian society or something else?
