Many in India, including Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, was upbeat about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s maiden official trip to the country, as it was expected to bring a “directional change in Sino-Indian bilateral relationship of the past 50 to 60 years.”
Even a hardcore ex-spy like National Security Adviser Ajit Doval was highly optimistic that the pending border dispute between India and China can be resolved easily given Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping’s positional strength in respective domestic politics. But as the two leaders sat on a garden swing in a decked-up Sabarmati riverfront in Modi’s home state Gujarat, Chinese troop’s transgression into Indian territories continued unabated.
While enjoying the cultural performance put up by Gujarati folk artists or relishing a royal dinner with President Xi in a luxury tent, did it ever occurred to Modi that out there in the inhospitable terrains of Ladakh, India’s soldiers and even civilians are courageously standing up to Chinese bullying? After all, Modi and his army of overzealous supporters have been teaching the nation about patriotism for quite some time now, often abusing the peaceniks for demanding a peaceful settlement of the protracted dispute.
Did Modi not lampoon the then foreign minister, Salman Khurshid, for not postponing a trip to Beijing despite China’s violation of Indian territories? “The Chinese intrude into our land and we keep mum,” thundered Modi in every speech that he delivered before the 2014 general elections. And today, Modi realizes better than anybody else that premiership is nothing but a crown of thorns, as the incumbent is forced to wear the broken promises like a shining necklace without even getting the opportunity of self-defense. A hard-line Modi, having instigated anti-Pakistan and anti-China hysteria before his coronation, has started showing signs of passivity as he is gradually getting a grip on reality.
But, can he convince his rather rigid support base, on which his electoral fortune rests, that the reality is somewhat different from what he has projected all this while? Or will this core-constituency become a stumbling block on the way to arriving at an unavoidable compromise formula as the border issue has become complicated after Britain disowned the 1914 Simla Accord — the basis of India’s border claim?
True, Beijing is in no mood to let India fall in Japan’s hand so easily especially after Modi’s tangential criticism of China’s expansionist design in Tokyo. For the Chinese leadership, this is the most opportune moment to entice New Delhi with appropriate economic and geopolitical incentives notwithstanding their rigidity on notional territorial claims. But then, the fact is there cannot be any lasting tranquility unless the principal obstacle — the intractable border issue — is settled amicably once and for all. The point remains, how much should India bend to placate China so that her core strategic interests are not compromised. Modi’s “INCH toward MILES” statement is reflective of his gross inadequacy in assessing Beijing’s actual intent. A nation, which is inching its way to acquiring miles of strategic landmass by aggressive diplomacy, despite the insistence of being open to resolving disputes peacefully, should be minutely observed and intelligently handled.
Ajit Doval, having experienced the cunning conduct of the Chinese military from close quarters during his stay in China’s Yunan province while working incognito in the outlawed Mizo National Army, should think twice before advising Modi to cede Kashmir’s Aksai Chin to Beijing lock stock and barrel without adequate reciprocity. Modi might be tempted to do anything and everything to have his name inscribed in history permanently, but will eventually end up bolstering a possible ploy of delinking the Ladakh sector in Kashmir from the overall Sino-Indian boundary dispute. Besides, this columnist understands reliably, that any move to fundamentally alter the status of Kashmir in a hurry — by agreeing to hand over Aksai Chin along with the strategically vital Skya Sgam valley and Menser Enclave close to the Manasarovar Lake in Tibet — will be nothing short of committing hara-kiri.
No doubt, there is an urgent need to evolve new dynamics in India-China relationship but the fate of China-occupied Kashmir-area under the present circumstances can only be decided through quadripartite negotiations where the Kashmiris will also have a voice. Given the unique status and strategic importance of Kashmir, any short-cut solution or an Indian move to use Aksai Chin as bait for seeking Beijing’s formal recognition of New Delhi’s claim over Arunachal Pradesh will spell disaster.
After all, the basic tenet of Chinese border negotiation is to extract the maximum without conceding territories at all. Yes, recalibrating the economic tie to foster greater collaboration in domestic manufacturing and infrastructure development is a must. So is the necessity to put centuries-old Sino-Indian relationship, marked by rich cultural exchanges, beyond the strategic chess game of international coalitions with common military goals. But a false step in border negotiations would mean New Delhi not just losing its hold over Aksai Chin and Tawang in the east, but also surrendering the critical leverage of having a say in the final settlement of Tibet issue especially in the post Dalai Lama era. Any solution to the border dispute must be a win-win one for both nations.
Aksai Chin is pivotal to China’s access to the energy-rich Eurasian market. If Beijing acknowledges officially that it is India which is facilitating China’s geo-strategic and economic agenda by intending to put Aksai Chin in “one-China” mix, sky would undoubtedly be the limit in the future of bilateral relationship.
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Seema Sengupta is a Kolkata-based journalist and columnist.
Email: [email protected]
