Iran’s supreme leader bitterly complains that the West has not kept its promises and that economic sanctions on his country have not been lifted despite Tehran keeping the commitments over its nuclear program. For him to speak out in such a manner only goes to show that the Iranian government is in a difficult situation.
The international oil prices are still down and Iran’s financial condition is worse than it was last year when it signed the nuclear agreement. The country's high command wrongly thought that lifting of sanctions would end its economic crisis. At the same time, Iran’s military involvement outside its borders has increased due to the escalation of battles and its funding of allies like Bashar Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen.
Iran, like the rest of the oil producing countries, has lost more than 60 percent of its income because of its hegemonic attitude. The financial transactions it retrieved from its frozen assets did not help either. The contracts and deals it rushed to sign with several governments and global companies to buy weapons and civilian aircraft and carry out infrastructure projects are in trouble due to lack of funds. This means that Tehran will have to pay more in bank interest and fines if it falls behind with payments.
Iran’s supreme leader himself may have been deceived when his team, which is enthusiastic to reconcile with the West, convinced him that the nuclear deal would resolve the country’s financial problems. However, he has now realized that revenues have significantly decreased. On the other hand, this is not the case with his neighbors such as the oil producing Gulf countries, as they have massive reserves and funds to tackle the fiscal deficit. International banks are also willing to lend them money.
Tehran should realize that reconciliation with Washington alone would not grant it wealth, influence or dominance.
Moreover, Iran wants to impose its conditions everywhere and in all fields. It wants to raise the oil prices globally without getting affected. For instance, during the recent OPEC conference in Doha, Tehran refused to lower its share of production and asked other OPEC countries to decrease their share so that oil prices increase.
Tehran wants the Yemen peace negotiators in Kuwait to grant its Houthi ally more than it deserves. It refuses to make any concessions regarding Syria and insists on maintaining the Damascus regime represented by Bashar Assad and uses its militias to serve this purpose. It pushes its allies in Iraq, such as former Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, to ignite chaos by altering the political map and it thinks that the rest of the powers there will submit to it. It plans to achieve all these aims while it is is suffering from the worst financial situation in years.
Perhaps what further increased the frustration in Iran is that the supreme guide, president and the rest of the state figures had at the beginning of this year promised the people that there would be a phase of quick boom. They did so to convince them that although they were forced to tolerate the international sanctions for 20 years, they had finally won the battle. This, even as they did not fulfill their promise of a nuclear bomb. However, the Iranians are now realizing that have become poorer than they were before.
The reconciliation with the West will neither help resolve Iran’s crises nor address the regime’s urgent needs. It should realize that the best way to tackle the crises, triggered by its own actions, is by cooperating with its neighbors. Regional reconciliation is the only way for Tehran to achieve stability and prosperity. Ironically, it wants to expand and dominate when it can’t even feed its own people.
