AMID the widely spread perception that the United State is slowly but surely disengaging from the Middle East, Iranian leaders are grappling with formulating a strategy to benefit from such eventuality.
Explicit in Iran’s move in the region is its desire to reshape the Middle East in such a way that would catapult Iran into a prominent regional power. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei put his money where his mouth is. Iran’s huge influence in four Arab capitals cannot be more obvious.
The ability of Iran to reshape the Middle East is in part contingent on the hesitant leadership of US President Barack Obama. For instance, at a time when President Obama is being subject to Republicans’ pressure as well as pressure coming from some of his allies in the Middle East to put an end to Iran’s nuclear program, he is becoming increasingly reliant on Iran in the battle against the militants of the self-ascribed Islamic State (IS) in Iraq. While Obama seems unwilling to put boots on the ground in neither Iraq nor Syria, Iran is willing to do the job at least in Iraq.
This begs the question: How could President Obama rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions when Iranian fighters are helping push back the IS militants in Iraq? Although the American administration insists that it has not coordinated with Iran in the fight against a common enemy, a few would really buy into this pretension. The coordination does not have to be in an overt way, it could be done through Iraqi intermediaries particularly those who have vested interest in getting Tehran’s support for sectarian ends.
Undoubtedly, Iranian forces are helping the Iraqi army hold on against militants, but at what price? To the vexation of the American administration, Gen. Qassim Suleimani — accused by the Americans of organizing a deadly campaign against American forces in the past — is leading the Iranian forces in Iraq. His pictures of drinking tea on the frontline must have embarrassed the American leadership. Is Iran doing this job just to help the United States with nothing in return?
As Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University said, “You can’t have your cake and eat it too — the US strategy in Iraq has been successful so far largely because of Iran.”
In fact, some American officials are keen to see Iran getting involved in an overt job of ejecting the IS. Gen. Martin Dempsey appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee on last Tuesday and said that the participation of Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Tikrit was a positive step as long as it would not aggravate sectarian tension. I think that Gen. Martin Dempsey knows better than that. The Iranian-backed Shiite groups have been serving Iran and have been the cause of sectarian tension for years. Needless to say, the Shiite militias committed atrocities against the Sunni Arabs of Iraq and this trend have continued unchecked.
That said, one should examine the notion that Iran is adopting a realpolitik approach to the region. Iranians’ perception of the decline of the American influence in the region is what drives Iran over the last few years. Key to Iran’s strategy to be a regional superpower is developing its nuclear program. After years of defiance, it seems that Iranian leaders internalize that most expedient way to nuclear arms is through an agreement with the United States.
As a result, Iranian leaders hope that reaching an agreement with the United States would mean one thing for them: Lifting the crippling sanction regime. Perhaps, Khamenei realizes that his regime rests on shaky grounds. The sanction has a grave toll on the Iranian economy and therefore Khamenei is seeking away to keep Iran’s ability to go nuclear while protecting the regime and its ideological pillars.
It remains to be seen how the deal would be worked out. But for the time being, the American allies in the region have faith in neither Obama’s intentions nor his judgment. In fact, it is not only the nuclear program that annoys other countries in the Middle East but also Iranian expansionism as well.
When John Kerry visited Saudi Arabia to assure its leaders that his country would not let them down, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal made it perfectly clear that Iran’s role in Tikrit demonstrates Iran’s “hegemonic” tendencies. The words used by Prince Saud Al-Faisal were carefully chosen to highlight and indeed expose Iran’s aggressive strategy.
