The new Iraqi Cabinet lineup is not a major change and much more is needed to address grievances that contributed to the rise of extremists who seized swathes of the country, experts say.
Having the support of Iraq’s various religious and ethnic communities, especially members of its alienated Sunni Arab minority, is essential to the government’s fight to regain ground lost to a sweeping offensive led by the Islamic State (IS) group.
But while Iraq has faced heavy international pressure, including from the United States and United Nations, to do this through forming a broader-based government, other factors are ultimately more important, experts say. MPs voted Monday to approve 26 Cabinet-level nominees, ushering in Haidar Al-Abadi’s term as premier.
But while US Secretary of State John Kerry praised the “new and inclusive” government as a “major milestone,” the key interior and defense portfolios remain unfilled and the Cabinet has not undergone major changes. “In terms of the sectarian division of the government, it’s actually, if you’re going to take it strictly by numbers, less inclusive,” said Fanar Haddad, a research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore. And Kirk Sowell, the publisher of the Inside Iraqi Politics newsletter, said the new Cabinet “is not a radical change.” Both Sowell and Haddad said the focus on government composition is in any case misplaced. “The last government was inclusive — this is meaningless,” said Sowell. “It’s really a matter of policy.”
Despite being broad-based, the previous government headed by Nuri Al-Maliki alienated Sunnis and was also frequently at odds with the country’s autonomous Kurdish region. “Inclusivity seems to be measured by the number of positions doled out to Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, which of course doesn’t mean anything,” said Haddad. “What really matters is the power that comes with that position,” he said. “That, we’re not going to know for a while, until the government actually starts operating.”
How the government deals with the provinces where fighting is taking place, the Shiite militias that are bolstering security forces, and the Kurdish region will all be key, he said. Al-Abadi asked for a week to fill posts including the interior and defense ministries, and who obtains them will likely play a key role in relations between the government and the Sunnis. Former transport minister Hadi Al-Ameri, who commands the powerful Shiite Badr militia, has been angling for one of the two posts. If he “becomes interior minister, that basically puts an end to any kind of security power-sharing with Sunnis,” Sowell said. “It’s horrendous... he’s a militia leader and an Iranian proxy.”
Haddad agreed, saying: “Whatever benefits accrued from forming a new government, appointing Hadi Al-Ameri as head of defense or interior, I think, would be a big blow to any hope of trying to bring a... critical mass of Sunnis back on board.” And it will be difficult if not impossible for security forces to push back the militants without the support of the local populations in the predominantly Sunni areas they hold — something at least partially contingent on their politicians’ relationship with the government.
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