In September 2014, the terrorist organization known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) (now just Islamic State) announced that it was ready “to start a war in Chechnya” and even “liberate Chechnya” and the entire Caucasus. Its ambitions clearly exceeded its capabilities, however, as this has not yet happened.
In fact, rather than IS bringing the war to the Caucasus, many Caucasus fighters have joined the war in the Middle East. While it is hard to determine exactly how many Caucasus natives — and Chechens specifically — are fighting for IS, many suggest there could be close to 2,000.
Well-known Chechen dissident Mairbek Vatchagaev, who was once former Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov’s special envoy, puts the total number of Chechens fighting for IS at 1,500, but claims that only 150 of them came directly from Chechnya. The rest, he believes, came from the Middle East and Europe. (France is home to 35,000 Chechens, and it is estimated that Norway is home to close to 10,000). Some reports also suggest that 200 fighters from Dagestan have joined IS.
Members of the Caucasus Emirate, an extremist organization established in 2007 in the North Caucasus, have also started moving to the Middle East to fight for IS. Ali Abu Mukhammad, leader of the Caucasus Emirate, expressed his dismay with this development, saying that although the decision on where to wage jihad — in the Middle East or Russia — is up to individual fighters, “brothers” ought to return to the North Caucasus “to start a war in Russia’s southern regions.”
Some Caucasus natives will return home. Some are returning already. They are not, however, doing so at Abu Mukhammad’s request — they are returning due to increased tensions within IS. Ethnic conflicts have recently flared up, including clashes between Chechen and Uzbek militants, and the position of IS leadership is quite incoherent. Many in IS also fear that the US-led international coalition may start a large-scale military operation against the group during March.
The return of a few dozen fighters is unlikely to have a material effect on the already aggravated violent situation in the Caucasus anyway. The daring assault on Grozny perpetrated by a group of militants on Dec. 4 remains the most high-profile terrorist attack in the last two months, but there have been many other incidents involving the members of the terrorist underground in the North Caucasus in that period: Police forces killed three militants in Ingushetia at the end of December, two militants implicated in the Grozny attack were killed in Chechnya a month after, and several police officers died in clashes with militants in Dagestan in January.
Going forward, a lot will depend on the socioeconomic and political situation in the North Caucasus. Its rapid deterioration is bound to increase popular discontent, which may lead more people, including returning IS fighters, to join the armed struggle.
— The writer is the chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society and Security Program. (In partnership with The Mark News)
