The Lebanese are very upset. On all fronts, the country is failing. On the security front, the negotiations are stalling. Israel is continuing its systematic destruction of the south. There is often no electricity. The price of gas has increased, as have the rates for private generators. The economic situation is worse than ever. Discontent has reached an all-time high. Are we close to witnessing another October 2019 moment?

Seven years ago, protests spread throughout the country. While the trigger was the WhatsApp tax, the root causes that pushed people to take to the streets were high unemployment, a lack of services and corruption. It was an organic, spontaneous movement. Initially, the political class was worried, especially as the problem came along with the banking crash that several experts had been expecting. Protesters started organizing.

The protests that happened in 2019 were a continuation of previous movements that started in 2015 as a result of the closure of landfill dumps. The trash disposal crisis led to a movement called “You Stink.” This sparked a civic movement. The movement that started as a protest against the lack of trash disposal developed to ask for accountability, but it fizzled out when it became politicized.

The 2019 protests were another episode of public discontent amid awareness that the current political class cannot deliver good governance. However, like in 2015, the mass protest movement fizzled out. It disappeared but the repercussions were grave: lost deposits, the collapse of the national currency and a crashing economy.

There has been no formal investigation into the financial crisis. All the lawsuits against the banks are still locked up in drawers

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

In the seven years since 2019, there has not been any real account of what happened, explaining why the crisis happened and why the national currency collapsed. There is still no accountability. What is the official story? Where did the depositors’ money go? Seven years on and still there is no solution. The problem still has not been tackled. Since the 2019 financial crisis, the country has faced one catastrophe after another: COVID-19, the Beirut port explosion, etc.

There has been no formal investigation into the financial crisis. All the lawsuits against the banks are still locked up in drawers. Even for those who raised lawsuits and won, the banks have appealed and the cases are stuck in the court system. The government still has not offered any solution or road map. They talk about a law restructuring the banks but there is no tangible solution.

The bank restructuring law is being appealed by President Joseph Aoun, apparently for sectarian reasons. He is challenging Article 3 of the draft law in front of the Constitutional Council. The reason for his opposition is that this law would remove the powers of the central bank governor, who is a Maronite Christian, and give it to a central council that is composed of different factions. The Maronites consider this as being another Christian position that is being stripped of its powers. They refer to the presidency, which has been stripped of its executive power.

Again, we go back to the power play between the different factions. Which faction gets a bigger share of the composition of power? However, this struggle to maximize the power and privileges of each faction does not cater to the average citizen’s basic needs.

People’s salaries are being eaten up primarily by the devaluation of the Lebanese pound and by inflation

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

So, on the pretext of keeping the sectarian balance, there is no accountability for the depositors’ losses. The bank restructuring law is also linked to the proposed financial gap law, which indicates who is responsible and who will bear the cost. Is it the banks, the central bank, the state or the depositors? Everything is up in the air.

The Iran war has added another element in the mix. Israel is decimating the south of the country, displacing more than 1 million people. The state is incapable of handling the crisis properly. People are still residing in tents on the street. In addition to the direct cost of Israel’s war on Lebanon, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the spike in energy prices has further increased inflation. People’s salaries are being eaten up primarily by the devaluation of the Lebanese pound and by inflation.

In the meantime, the government, which has no viable comprehensive plan for the country, is increasing taxes on energy. The public sector is now closed on Fridays as people cannot afford to commute. Government departments work only four days a week. Workers’ unions are mobilizing as the minimum wage is unacceptable and living conditions are unbearable.

The unions are threatening strikes. The situation is about to explode, as in 2019. However, the political class is playing its final card to prevent the situation from exploding: sectarianism. The divisions in society are so grave that collective action is difficult.

Strikes were planned but the General Labor Union and the Land Transport Union decided to postpone action and give the government a chance to review and respond to their demands. They received some perks from the government but no real solution to the current crisis.

The economic situation and living conditions are today far worse than they were in 2019. To add to that, there is the crisis in the south, where a large chunk of the country has been leveled and hundreds of thousands of people displaced. The situation is bound to explode the same way it did seven years ago. The question is: Will mass protest this time lead to real change or will it fizzle out like in 2015 and 2019, with the corrupt political class and the mafia continuing to control the country?

  • Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.