Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing two challenges — one from within, which cropped up this month and the other from outside which will be in the third week of this month.
The first one pertains to simmering tensions between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ideologue, the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS). The second is the by-election to ten assembly seats in Bihar on Aug. 21. Both are crucial for Modi.
The first challenge comes from the RSS, traditionally the ideological master of the BJP, but is now increasingly getting marginalized by recent strong electoral showing of Modi.The RSS knows that its very authority and relevance are at stake in view of the current political situation.
RSS getting increasingly miffed with Modi became evident on Aug. 10 — the day of Hindu festival Raksha Bandhan which symbolizes the bond of love, protection and brotherhood. RSS Chief Mohan Rao Bhagwat delivered a politically loaded speech in the eastern Indian city of Bhubaneshwar (Odisha) and commented about the change of government at the Center. He said the new government came to power because the people of India wanted change and said the credit for it goes to the people, not to any party or individual.
As though this were not clear enough, Bhagwat elaborated the same day in the nearby city of Cuttack. He gave his piece of mind in response to a statement of his previous speaker at a public function in Cuttack who had spoken about three democratic milestones of India — 1947 (independence of India), 1977 (electoral defeat of the Indira Gandhi-led Congress government) and 2014 (Congress party’s worst-ever defeat at the hands of Modi).
Bhagwat’s response was as follows: “All these happened due to people who wanted these (events to happen). It is being said that all these happened because of some party, organization or individual. But they were there, well much before. But the change did not occur. Only when people wanted the change, did they happen.”
Nothing can be more explicit than this. Clearly, Bhagwat is airing the RSS grievance that the saffron outfit’s efforts are being belittled and just one individual — Narendra Modi — is being knighted and lionized.
More importantly, Bhagwat is telling Modi that without the RSS he is nothing. He wouldn’t have been the prime minister in the first place if the RSS had not backed him to the hilt and used its nationwide network to campaign for him.
It is an open secret that political circles in New Delhi are aware of the growing rift between the RSS and Modi, though the BJP government has been in a denial mode. Movers and shakers within the RSS, led by Mohan Bhagwat, are all men of astute political knowledge.
The RSS was vehemently opposed to Amit Shah becoming the BJP president, arguing that both the leaders of the government (Modi) and the leader of the party (Shah) cannot be from the same state. Both Modi and Shah hail from Gujarat. But Modi rode roughshod over the RSS objections and made Shah the BJP president.
Insiders say that since it had to eat a humble pie in the Amit Shah episode, the RSS bluntly told Shah that the BJP should not expect the RSS to campaign for the party in assembly polls in four states of Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand and Haryana in October-November this year.
Thus the upcoming assembly polls in four states would demonstrate who is more powerful: Modi or the RSS. The BJP is not in power in any of the four states and a strong showing by the party could virtually write the epitaph of the RSS.
The second challenge for Modi — the Aug. 21 Bihar by-election — won’t affect Modi government’s stability whatever be the result, but the outcome of these polls will definitely be of huge political significance. It will be an effective barometer to adjudge whether the Modi magic is on the wane or intact.
Modi’s arch-rivals and regional satraps — Lalu Prasad Yadav of Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United) — have already joined hands, burying their 20-year-old animosity.
Since Modi became the prime minister the BJP has already lost by-elections for three assembly seats in Uttarakhand and the BJP could not win a single seat. In Uttarakhand, the BJP was in a far better position having won all five Lok Sabha seats from the state in the recent general elections and was embroiled in a direct contest with the Congress. But in Bihar, the political equation is far more tedious for the BJP.
One has to wait and watch how Modi negotiates the two challenges.
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The writer is a New Delhi-based independent journalist and a political commentator who tweets @Kishkindha
