It has been more than a week since five Arab countries joined the US-led coalition in bombing Islamic State (IS) targets in both Syria and Iraq. The event is unprecedented and it bolsters Washington’s case that the onslaught is not directed toward the region’s Sunnis, but is aimed at degrading and destroying an extremist terrorist organization, with no links to true Islam, which has become a threat to the region and the world.
But in spite of persistent airstrikes, whose immediate objective is to undercut IS funding channels, such as oil refineries, and to check the advance of militants in Iraq and Syria, there are few indications that the air campaign alone will be enough to defeat it in the short run.
The international and regional coalition now comprises more than 50 countries, with Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark dispatching fighter jets to the region to participate in aerial bombardment and reconnaissance flights in Iraq. The US and its Arab allies (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates) are bombing IS targets in Syria.
Now the discussion is shifting to the need to look into the deployment of ground forces at a future stage something that the majority of coalition members object to, including the US and Britain. The strategy is to support the Iraqi army and the Kurdish Peshmerga in the field and to arm the so-called moderate opposition in Syria to fend off IS militants. It is here that doubts are being raised about the efficacy of such approach. On Monday reports said that IS fighters were only few kilometers from the Iraqi capital Baghdad, a shocking development that once again underlined fundamental flaws in the Iraqi army.
President Barack Obama admitted that his administration and intelligence officials had underestimated the threat posed by IS and overestimated the Iraqi army’s capacity to defeat the militant group.
Similarly, IS fighters’ advance on the strategic Kurdish dominated town of Ain Al Arab — on the Turkish-Syrian border — continued despite fierce resistance from Kurdish forces who are backed by allied jet fighters. The militants had overrun a number of Kurdish towns in the region driving more than 200,000 residents to flee into Turkey. The airstrikes, which killed IS fighters as well as those belonging to Al-Qaeda affiliate group Al-Nusra Front, have pushed the two to forget their differences and join forces. Both have threatened to carry out reprisals against coalition countries.
These developments have cast a shadow of doubt over the effectiveness of hitting IS and others from the air while relying on Iraqi and Syrian forces on the ground. Turkey, which is yet to join the coalition, is said to be contemplating sending ground forces into Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said his country needs to take a frontline role in the fight against IS militants in Syria. He warned that airstrikes wouldn’t be enough to “finish off” the militants, hinting that ground forces could be mobilized. He is seeking Parliament backing and may request UN approval to establish a buffer zone along the borders with Syria.
Unconfirmed reports said Jordan has agreed to send its elite special forces to carry out missions in Syria. But the question remains if this will be enough to defeat the Islamic State militants.
Meanwhile, there are a number of issues, which directly affect the outcome of this long and costly campaign. One such issue is the role that Sunni tribes in Iraq will play in the near future. There are no indications that these tribes have actively turned against IS in western and northern Iraq. With Shiite militias at the forefront of fighting IS in the north of the country, many Sunnis express fear of reprisals against them on sectarian basis once the militants have been driven back.
It is the same in Al-Anbar province where Sunni tribes are yet to join efforts to fight IS militants who are in control of major towns there. Many of them are still doubtful about the success of the new government in Baghdad in dealing with their legitimate concerns.
Then there is the pressing matter of arming the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and so-called moderate rebels fighting the regime of President Bashar Assad. The US has offered to train and arm these fighters, but the Syrian opposition wants airstrikes to target Assad forces as well. This is a contentious issue within the US-led coalition and will be opposed by Russia and Iran. It is important to note that many rebel groups fight under various Islamist banners and some of them have few ideological differences that narrowly separates them from the IS and Al-Nusra Front.
How will arming the FSA affect the fight against IS and what will happen when and if the militants are defeated? The fate of the Damascus regime remains an open-ended question. The biggest challenge for the US-led coalition, in the medium and long terms, will be to safeguard it against conflicting agendas by member countries. The defeat of IS will bring back pressing questions about the role of Iran in Iraq, the future of Kurdistan and the fate of President Assad, among others.
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