Certain regional developments these days give an impression as if the Arab world lacks a clear vision during this tumultuous period. It appears as if the Arab countries are unable to effectively respond to those developments, which now threaten their national unity, if not their very existence.
Yemen, for instance, has experienced several dangerous changes including the fall of its capital to the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and flight of the legitimate leadership to Aden. This has been taking place against the background of major Iranian military and naval maneuvers in the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
There are reports about Arab attempts to scale down the ongoing tension with Turkey while some Arab players continue to engage in a war of words with Ankara over its alleged support to extremist groups in Libya.
On the other hand, the so-called Islamic State (IS) is wreaking havoc on eastern Syria and western Iraq. Lebanon remains tense and unable to elect a new president as its acute political impasse enters its 10th month. Then, the Israeli–Iranian competition to win a preferential position in the eyes of US is also gaining momentum.
Amid so much political turmoil and confusion, which might result into catastrophes, a concrete Arab strategy to check the situation remains elusive. This surely cannot be said about Israel, Iran and Turkey, each of which has its own clear regional strategy.
The Israeli strategy needs no introduction. Benjamin Netanyahu, his Likud “hawks” as well as other extreme right-wingers have never believed in the “Land for Peace” principle, even when they were confronting a moderate secular Palestinian side ready to negotiate and accept the “two-state solution.” Today, however, the Israeli extreme right is facing Palestinian groups that include “Islamist” organizations who are not only opposed to the “two- state solution” but are also directly connected to Iran. Washington under Obama is also committed to normalization leading to the de facto alliance with Tehran, which has pushed Netanyahu and his allies, as the Israeli elections loom, to engage in an unprecedented battle of wills and blackmail with the Americans.
At the same time, Israel and Iran compete for a place closer to Washington’s ears and interests, the Arabs are in a lose–lose situation. If Obama wins this battle then the real victor will be Iran. While if the pro-Netanyahu Republicans in the US Congress emerge victorious their victory will be nothing more than a victory for the hard-line Israeli right-wing.
As far as Iran’s strategy is concerned, it has never been clearer than it is today. It is now obvious who has been preventing the emergence of a truly sovereign and united post-Saddam Iraq, particularly during the long term of former Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki. Iran’s hegemony over Iraq can now be seen not only in the methodical sectarian cleansing in several areas of Iraq, but also in the active combat role that has been entrusted to the Tehran-led Iraqi sectarian militias inside Syria. What is ironic is that these militias, as well as the Iraqi regular armed forces — built by Tehran and Washington — are mostly sitting out the continuing battles against IS, leaving this task to the Sunni Arab tribes of western Iraq. All the while, Iran is presenting itself to the West as being its main ally in the fight against terrorism.
The reality is that Iran through Hezbollah is preventing the election of any new Lebanese president who does not agree to carry out the Lebanese side of its regional strategy. Hezbollah is effectively an occupying force in Lebanon but what Iran is seeking is rather an occupation made “constitutional” through a “puppet” president. Almost the same thing can be said about Yemen where the pro-Iran Houthi rebels are expanding their occupation of the country southwards, threatening the provinces of Ma’rib, oil-rich Shabwah, and Abyan. The escape of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi from the occupied capital Sana’a to his southern stronghold of Aden has been the only Houthi setback since they began their onslaught, and since the dubious role of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh became apparent.
In both the Lebanese and Yemeni cases Iran is justifying its direct intervention by claiming it is fighting against jihadists and “Al-Qaeda” respectively. However, Lebanon does not look like it will be able to keep its independence as long as it is dominated by Hezbollah that is much stronger than the Lebanese state. As for Yemen, it is unlikely to be able to maintain its national unity without containing the Houthi threat before it hands Iran control of the strait of Bab El-Mandeb.
There is no doubt that the Middle East needs Egypt to play an active role, which thanks to its demographic, strategic and cultural weight, can and should provide the much-needed balance. However, Egypt’s priorities at this moment in time are mainly domestic, not regional.
Thus, despite the welter of accusations leveled against Ankara, it is now a must that some sort of deep understanding with Ankara is reached without reservations. Indeed, what brings Turkey and many Arab countries together is much more important than temporary sensitivities and misunderstandings. It is vital that Turkey should now actively help to save what can still be saved of both Syria and Iraq, where tentative partition maps are all but ready.
It is now the right time to adopt a realistic and rational Arab approach that evolves into a true political “strategy” without delusions and ill-advised gambles.
