In his bid to form the next government in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu joined forces with the ultranationalist Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and formed the Likud-Beiteinu list to contest the upcoming elections.

Despite the opposition of some Likud members who fear that the move might backfire, the party approved the formation of this list. Interestingly, details of the merger agreement were not known.

Likud members who took the stage focused on the Iranian threat and said that it was not the time for opposition or independent thinking and diversity of opinions. Furthermore, during the meeting of the central committee of Likud, the merger agreement was not discussed before the vote.

Not surprisingly, this move is based on Netanyahu’s reading of the polls that give the joint list 40-45 seats. If this materializes, then this list will be the biggest one in the 120-seat Knesset and therefore Netanyahu will be the next prime minister of Israel. This begs the question whether the formation of the new list will continue unchallenged. In fact, splits and mergers are not uncommon in Israel. The political system and the existence of a plethora of political parties have produced a splintered political scene. Therefore, this merger is not the only one that is going to take place in weeks to come.

Promising as it may look, the Likud-Beiteinu list could backfire and generate a different outcome from what was stated in the polls. In other words, the situation is much deeper than what was reflected in polls and statistics. Unquestionably, this move may set off a chain reaction that can affect Israeli politics and lead to the formation of counter lists.

The rise of the controversial Avigdor Lieberman to a No. 2 spot will most likely to compel other politicians to come up with a counter move. Pressure will be mounted on both Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni to return to politics and head a counter list. The feverish speculation dominant in Israel these days is that the only way to challenge this new list is by forming a coalition of centrist and leftists forces. But this also is easier said than done. Olmert himself is still caught up in some charges of corruption and he is yet to speak up on the issue of return to politics.

Furthermore, it is not as if the Likud supporters are content with the rise of Lieberman to this prominent position. Supporters of Likud from North African background may have a hard time seeing the Russians getting preeminence in Israeli politics. Even some leaders such as Dan Merridor will have a difficult time digesting the catapult of Lieberman to the second place on the list. Will they shift their support to other parties such as Shas?

Additionally, it is difficult to forecast how the extreme right wing among Likud members will behave. The bloc called “Feighlinim” within Likud will feel that Lieberman outflanks them. It remains to be seen, however, if this bloc will remain loyal to Likud or move further to the right.

At the heart of Israeli politics is survival. I always argue that the key objective of politicians in Israeli is to survive politically. Seen in this way, Netanyahu has been meticulously working to guarantee his re-election in the upcoming elections. So far, he is not concerned with the possible international reaction of this move.

Lieberman suffers from an image problem at the international scene as extremist and undemocratic. It seems that Netanyahu is not thinking of the day after elections. A right-wing government with Lieberman as a deputy prime minister and a possible prime minister will have hard time to push Israel’s strategic agenda especially with Iran.

By taking the decision of running on the same ticket with Lieberman, Netanyahu’s chances of securing re-election look stronger but as this course was uncharted before it may lead to an opposite outcome. Even if Netanyahu makes it and wins a third term, his arms may be tied by this merger agreement. His room of maneuverability may be less than what he would like to see. In other words, Netanyahu’s gamble is not a slam-dunk and is open to different scenarios and it can trigger a chain of uncontrollable events.