As the Geneva talks aimed at finding a political transition in Syria began to crumble, Russia has started its military buildup near Aleppo. The fragile cease-fire may not hold in the days to come. It is not clear yet what the Russians are up to. But, their military movement in the northern part of Syria can only embolden the regime to stick to its gun and stall the negotiations.
Evidently, the culprit behind this situation is Assad’s regime. For obvious reasons, the Syrian regime’s delegation to the Geneva talks negotiated in bad faith. It should not surprise anyone therefore that Assad would not negotiate a transitional governing body that would secure his final departure from the political scene.
Amid the continuous unchecked breach of the cease-fire carried out by Assad’s forces, the main opposition coalition had to walk out from the talks in Geneva. It was obvious from the beginning that Assad’s forces and his militias took advantage of the cease-fire to retake territories. If he manages to retake Aleppo, then his troops will have a great psychological boost that would render negotiations impractical.
Let’s get to the bottom of the issue, Russia has injected military forces not to battle terrorism but to prop up Assad’s regime. Ever since it started its military campaign against the moderate opposition, Russia has used every trick in the book to fool the international community about its final objectives in Syria. To be sure, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been greatly helped by the complicit American position. It is as if the American administration is managing the conflict rather than taking a stand against a regime that has generated all kinds of terrorism in Syria. The hope that President Putin would scapegoat Assad for the sake of stability in Syria was not realistic from the beginning. As I wrote before, Putin would have acted differently if the price tag for his reckless actions in Syria were high.
US Secretary of State John Kerry has not changed, as he continues to pin hope on Russia to cooperate. President Obama spoke to President Putin about the Russian buildup near Aleppo hoping that the Russian leader would budge. The problem is not what the American side has been saying but whether or not the American administration has an alternative plan other than working with Putin.
Putin knows that the American administration has no appetite for getting deeply involved in the conflict. While the American administration could provide the opposition with lethal weapon to check Russia, it took a different course. Perhaps, the Americans fear that shoulder-fired anti aircraft missiles — that would render Russian aircraft vulnerable — may fall into the hands of terrorists is not realistic. To be sure, there are ways of making sure that the missiles can only be used by moderate opposition who has been faithful to the Syrian cause.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the American administration is not serious about the end of the conflict in Syria. Its failure to act properly has rendered it less effective. I don’t think that President Putin takes Obama’s warning seriously.
Moreover, the American threats of plan B are lacking credibility. Recently, Kerry made it perfectly clear that his country has not option other than working with the Russians. “The problem is when you go down that other road you’re talking about a lot more fighting and a lot more casualties and you’re talking about a lot more refugees and that brings with it a whole different set of problems, So, are we bending over backward to try to make it work,” said Kerry.
