US President Barack Obama’s visit to Saudi Arabia comes at a time when the two countries differ on a number of issues. Despite all differences, Saudi Arabia remains an important regional ally. Obama would be wise to mend the bilateral relationship.
Saudi Arabia, the source of one in nine barrels of oil consumed globally, is not just a linchpin of the global economy; its government’s stability is crucial to the international order.
A major cause of the deterioration of Riyadh-Washington relationship is Obama’s decision to diminish America’s direct involvement in the Middle East. In a long interview with the journalist Jeffrey Goldberg, Obama expressed his desire for Saudi Arabia to “share” the region with Iran.
Obama expended an enormous amount of time and political capital to obtain a nuclear deal with Iran. He hopes that lifting sanctions in exchange for Iran’s promise to halt its nuclear program for about 15 years will lead Iran to change its behavior, become a more responsible state actor, and abandon its revolutionary agenda and frequent use of non-state actors (including terrorist groups) to advance its goals.
If Iran does as Obama hopes, the US will be able to reduce its military presence in the Gulf. And if Iran’s leaders stop promoting terror, another important foreign policy achievement will be added to Obama’s legacy.
Unfortunately for Obama — and for the Middle East — his strategy is failing. Iran remains the principal backer of both Syrian President Bashar Assad and the Shiite-led government in Baghdad, making it a leading contributor to the humanitarian tragedy in both countries, where Sunni Arabs comprise the majority of the victims of violence.
Saudi Arabia’s behavior has changed even more dramatically in response to its perceived abandonment by the US. The Kingdom’s leadership has become convinced that the Obama administration no longer has its back, calling into question a decades-old relationship. Americans in Riyadh are repeatedly asked whether Obama’s approach represents an exception or a permanent feature of US policy toward the Gulf.
Obama’s policy has led the Kingdom to break with its long tradition of quiet diplomacy and behind-the-scenes maneuvers. Instead, Saudi Arabia has become proactive on the foreign-policy front. It has severed diplomatic relations with Iran. Repairing the relationship will not be easy. He would likely accomplish far more if, instead, he offered an explicit promise that the US would come to the GCC countries’ defense against external aggression in all its forms.
Such a move would not be unprecedented. US presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan offered similar guarantees, and Obama would be reiterating and strengthening this commitment while taking into account Iran’s potential use of non-state actors. Such a declaration would put Iran on notice.
The wars in Iraq and Syria will not end until regional players come to an accommodation, which will require US mediation. If the Middle East is allowed to continue on its present drift, without American leadership, US military intervention — most likely sooner rather than later —– will become a near-certainty.
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©Project Syndicate
