Pakistan has been cozying up to Russia for about a decade now. Frustrated over Washington’s policy shift towards Delhi in the past two decades, Islamabad’s embrace of Moscow signifies continuity of its old flawed either-or outlook. 

With the rise of Putin, Pakistan found in the Kremlin a politically manageable partnership and an affordable supply of weapons. The clique of politicians, many of whom have made careers out of brazen anti-Americanism, are now euphoric over “warming” of relations with the Kremlin.

Since Moscow lifted its embargo on arms’ sale to Pakistan in 2014, Russia has become the sole supplier of power plants for the Pakistan Armed Forces’ JF-17 Thunder fighter jets, which were designed for MiG-29 aircraft 40 years ago. The other source of hype in Pakistan has been the purchase of four multi-role combat helicopters, the Russian-made Mi-35M. A deal for another 20 units has yet to be concluded. Putin’s first official tour, rumored to take place last year, is not even on the cards yet. Pakistan seeks to acquire more of the Kremlin’s modern S-400 Trimuf air defense systems and the Su-35 fighter jet, a heavily modified version of four-decade-old Su-27 aircraft. Only a few units of ultra-maneuverable jets have been sold to China. 

Low on funds, Islamabad hopes to not only get Putin’s nod for the coveted fighter jet but also negotiate the acquisition on deferred payment, if not through military assistance. 

It is a hard nut to crack for Moscow which is facing a slump in oil prices while also investing heavily in Syria and Iran.

In the east lies India, Russia’s historic partner in geopolitics and a key customer for its military hardware. Besides continuing the licensed production of Russian Su-30 MKI fighter jets, Delhi is also acquiring S-400 air defense missile systems. India has leased a nuclear-powered Akula class attack submarine while another is being assembled in a Russian dockyard, with an agreement for four Admiral Grigorovich-class stealth frigates due to be signed next month. This will take the total number of deliveries to 10. The Indian navy is already equipped with a leased nuclear-powered Akula class attack submarine while another is being assembled in a Russian dockyard. 

A decade ago, Russia overhauled and modernized India’s Kiev class aircraft carrier Vikramaditya but now on offer is another nuclear-powered super vessel as India attempts to design INS Vishal. Whether Russia, France or the U.S. gets the lucrative deal is anybody’s guess.

Last Monday, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi flew to Sochi to spend a day with Russian president Vladimir Putin. Like his late April meeting with Chinese president Xi Jinping, the trip to the Black Sea resort came without honor guards, official dinners and statements. The duo met to “strengthen the special and privileged strategic partnership.” 

The inconclusive arms deals, Iran sanctions and Russia policy towards Pakistan and Afghanistan could have been discussed.

Russia’s offer for a super aircraft carrier worth $12 billion to the fifth generation stealth fighter Sukoi-57, was probably also on the table.  Besides the Iran nuclear deal, the Congressional legislation Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) – specific to Russia, Iran and North Korea — is also a mutual concern for both Moscow and Delhi.

Moscow is not the politically-manageable powerful partner Islamabad is hoping for, as Putin is pursuing his own interests.

Naveed Ahmad

India’s business negotiations with Russia have come to an impasse, and yet it is still viewed as untrustworthy by Washington. Putin wants to lure Modi on his side. It already supports Delhi’s bid for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) as well as the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. Russo-India trade dwarfs regional countries while people-to-people contacts pre-date the reign of India’s first premier Jawaharlal Nehru.

In contrast, Pakistan’s intergovernmental agreement with Russia in 2015 on the construction of the 1,100-km long Karachi-Lahore gas pipeline has been marred by disagreements over gas transit fees. The bilateral trade volume remains below $500 million per annum. Even if Russia provides Pakistan with state-of-the-art, cutting-edge technology, there will not be much Islamabad can offer in return. Moscow will seek Islamabad’s commitment to an Iranian gas pipeline passing through its territory to a termination point in India. Putin will also expect Pakistan to help Iran ease fiscal pressure exerted by sanctions, a step sure to enrage the White House. The last thing Pakistan wants to face is sanctions and be mentioned in the same breath as Iran.

Overlooking the semantics, Pakistan’s intelligentsia has chosen to ignore flaws of Putin’s approach to global issues. His disruptive stratagem that undermines global institutions and status quo does not raise many eyebrows. America’s follies in Iraq or post-Soviet and pre-9/11 abandonment of Afghanistan cannot justify infatuation with another revivalist state which adamantly undermines international law and borders. Since taking over the country from Boris Yeltsin in 1999, Putin — a former KGB mid-ranking officer — has acted defiantly on the world stage. Devoid of a peace plan or even the intent, Russia wants to increase the US cost for continuing operations in Afghanistan. A volatile Afghanistan will be even more disastrous for Pakistan. 

Contrary to being a politically-manageable powerful partner, Moscow perfects the art of pursuing transactional relations. India is not the only one purchasing military hardware from Russia and the U.S.; Indonesia and Turkey do exactly the same too. Thus, acquisition of military equipment is not synonymous with a strategic partnership.

Secondly, Moscow will not necessarily annoy India to appease Pakistan by vetoing any adverse UNSC resolution. Islamabad must continue to hold on to Beijing.

Thirdly, marginal people-to-people contacts between Pakistan and Russia have little potential to expand owing to barriers like language, culture, and a limited job market. Excluding the GCC, the biggest contribution of remittances to Pakistan’s economy comes from the U.S. Fourthly, the emerging global system makes an either-or approach towards great powers unnecessary today. If Washington used to meddle in its allies’ internal affairs, the Kremlin has taken the art to the next level.

Lastly, China is fast surpassing Russia in the technological realm. Russia suffers from a major structural flaw: the absence of any mechanism in place for the political transition when Putin is no longer in power.

− Naveed Ahmad is an investigative journalist and academic based in the GCC with a career in writing on diplomacy, security and governance. Besides other honors, he won the Jefferson Fellowship in 2000 and UNAOC Cross-Cultural Reporting Award 2010. Twitter: @naveed360