Nigeria’s announcement of a cease-fire with Boko Haram has surprised many and convinced few, particularly when talks with the militants on the possible release of 219 kidnapped schoolgirls had been at a frustrating standstill.

The insurgents have had the upper hand in fighting in the far northeast in recent months, reportedly seizing at least two dozen towns and villages as part of their quest to establish a hardline Islamic state.

And in the aftermath of Friday’s declaration by Nigeria’s military and presidency, reports of attacks continue to emerge, casting further doubts about the credibility of the cease-fire claim.

The announcement has been greeted with skepticism by security analysts, those with knowledge of previous negotiation attempts with Boko Haram and ordinary Nigerians suspicious about their government’s motives.

“The kinds of claims have been made (by the government) a number of times before,” said Shehu Sani, a lawyer and civil rights activist who has been involved in previous back channel talks.

The main question mark was the identity of the purported Boko Haram envoy, Danladi Ahmadu, who claimed to be the group’s chief of security and to have been involved in talks to broker the deal.

Further doubts came after Ahmadu failed to announce explicitly that Boko Haram had agreed to a cease-fire or give concrete details about the girls’ release in an interview broadcast on Voice of America radio’s Hausa language service on Friday.

“It is not clear who the said Boko Haram negotiator is and whether he has the mandate of the entire group or just a faction of the entire group,” said Nnamdi Obasi, Nigeria researcher for the International Crisis Group.

Ordinarily, a clear statement about such a development would be expected from Shekau, who has previously refused to end the violence until strict Islamic law is imposed across northern Nigeria.

He has also said the schoolgirls would only be released if Nigeria agreed to a prisoner swap of jailed militants.

Talks on that issue broke down in recent months over Abuja’s refusal to accept such a demand, several sources involved have indicated to AFP.

Claims of amnesty deals in the past with Boko Haram to end the five years of violence have come to nothing and exposed the apparent factional nature of the group, several analysts noted.

Previous military statements about the conflict that have been contradicted by reports on the ground have also increased doubts.

Many observers viewed the announcement as politically motivated, with President Goodluck Jonathan expected to announce that he will stand for re-election in coming weeks.

Positive news about the insurgency and the kidnapped girls — whether true or not — would likely give him and his ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a political boost even if violence continues.

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AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE