Ever since the nuclear deal was signed last year, Iran’s civilian leaders, especially President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif, have expressed interest in dialogue with their neighbors.
However, Iran’s religious and military leaders have managed to frustrate such initiatives, by emphasizing their determination to continue to export revolution and incite sectarian violence, under the guise of safeguarding Shiite minorities’ interests.
While Rouhani has expressed interest in opening a new page with Iran’s neighbors, he has failed to clarify terms of reference for such a move. By contrast, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been quite clear, most recently at the summit held in Riyadh in December 2015, about such terms, which include Iran’s full adherence to international law and the United Nations Charter. Specifically, the GCC cited the need for Iran to respect sovereignty, national unity and territorial integrity of its neighbors and to refrain from the use of force or threats thereof, and incitement of sectarian hatred and violence.
Iran’s hard-liners, who appear to drive its regional policy, are also clear and have nothing but disdain for Rouhani’s initiatives. On April 5, Gen. Mohammed Ali Jaafari, Commander of the Revolutionary Guard (formally, Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, known by its acronym IRGC), gave a major policy speech, his first in the new Persian year. His remarks, made before the Guards’ leadership, reported by Iran’s official media, was a mixture of bombast and threats against his internal and external foes, ridiculing “diplomatic and political means” and asserting “the military option.”
One can perhaps dismiss his threats against the United States as intended for local consumption, when he said that Iran’s military plans were premised on expecting a “total war” with the US in which Iran would emerge “decisively victorious.”
However, his threats against Iran’s neighbors must be taken seriously. He said that the IRGC have completed preparations to act against neighboring countries, naming Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen, among others, and stating that he was “awaiting orders for appropriate action” against those countries.
As for Yemen, Jaafari said that Iran’s intervention was aimed at making “Ansarullah (Houthis) swords sharper,” pointing most likely to Iran’s plans to provide them with military advisers and weapons, in clear violation of UNSC Resolution 2216 (2015), which imposed an arms embargo on Yemen and put in place an inspection and verification system to enforce it.
In fulfillment of that UNSC Resolution, US, Australian and French navies, among others, have recently intercepted in the Arabian Sea near Yemen large quantities of weapons destined for the Houthis.
On March 28, the coastal patrol ship USS Sirocco “intercepted and seized” a cache of weapons, 5th Fleet spokesman Commander Kevin Stephens said in a statement. The shipment included 1,500 AK-47s, 200 RPG launchers and 21 .50-caliber machine guns. The guided-missile destroyer USS Gravely assisted in the seizure after the weapons were discovered by Sirocco’s boarding team, Stephens said. The dhow carrying the shipment and its crew were allowed to depart once the weapons were seized, as per the rules of engagement in that area. The weapons were in US custody, Stephens said.
On March 20, the French navy destroyer FS Provence seized a shipment of arms that included nearly 2,000 AK-47s, 64 Dragunov sniper rifles and nine anti-tank missiles.
Similarly, the Royal Australian Navy’s HMAS Darwin intercepted a dhow on Feb. 27 carrying another large cache of arms.
These hauls took place over just a month, coinciding with the progress UN special envoy was making in his mediation efforts in Yemen, making it clear that the IRGC wanted to frustrate those efforts. It is intensifying its efforts during the period leading up to Yemen talks scheduled for April 18 in Kuwait, intending to sway Houthis and their allies away from the political solution sought by the UN and Yemen’s government.
As for the nuclear deal, which President Obama considers the crown jewel of his foreign policy, Gen. Jaafari expressed scorn for Rouhani’s government for signing it, saying that the deal was “no cause for pride, not in our country’s interest, and was signed against our people’s will.” He accused the deal’s supporters of trying to “humiliate the Iranian people.”
On Iran’s missile program, Jaafari stressed Iran’s determination to continue to develop and mass-produce ballistic missiles, with greater accuracy and larger payloads, dismissing international protests.
Almost everywhere in the region, Iran appears to escalate its destabilizing activities, sharpening the contrast between those who call for dialogue and hardliners who continue business as usual.
Such contradictions between Rouhani’s conciliatory speeches and IRGC’s bellicose actions explain GCC skepticism about his calls for dialogue, asking to see actual confidence-building measures first.
