There is so far no indication that the international community is in a position to turn a blind eye to the atrocities that Russia is committing by carrying out airstrikes on Aleppo. President Putin is not sure whether or not his country will have a convincing narrative nor could he even predict how the continuation of the bloodbath in the rebel-held area in Aleppo will play out.
In a blistering condemnation, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Stephan O'Brien, laid the responsibility for the perpetuation of the misery in Aleppo at the Security Council’s door. In particular, he indicted Russia for being behind much of the indiscriminate bombing on eastern Aleppo.
It is as if the report of Stephan O'Brien is not enough, Russia has just lost its bid to become a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council. If anything, the Russian defeat reflects that the continuation of the war in Aleppo cannot go unchecked. Whatever Moscow tries to say, something detonates to prove them wrong. If Russia maintains its disrespectful language toward the UN, it will be in a marked diplomatic bind.
And yet, the Russian leadership is not clueless about their country’s increasing alienation at the international forums. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in particular does not seem gob-masked by the mounting criticism directed at his country. He sticks to his gun and insists that there is no option other than keeping on the battle while looking for a diplomatic solution. To be sure, it does not take a genius to figure out the lack of commitment of the Russian leadership to any diplomatic solution that does not guarantee its victory in Syria.
Explicit in Russia’s deeds is contempt to the international community and the UN. Moscow has used its status as a permanent member to the Security Council to torpedo any effort to resolve the Syrian crisis in a way that does not fit into Russia’s overall strategy. Of course, Putin is a rational actor. His moves are based on his conception of the cost-benefit formula. Thus far, Russia has not paid for its killing of Syrians. As long as Putin is having a free ride in Syria, he is most likely not going to budge.
This time around the great powers who claim to support the right of the Syrian people to self-determination should realize that working within the Security Council is a recipe for paralysis. Put differently, no matter what the Security Council is up to, Russia can always cast a veto thus nipping in the bud any positive initiative. Unlike countries that respect human rights and are sensitive to killing civilians, Russia is by no means forthcoming. Its leaders do not value human lives. Hence, there is a need to come up with a scheme outside the Security Council to pull the rug out from under the feet of Russia.
All along its recent history, Russia has proved resilient as long as it does not pay a cost. Therefore, short of placing a price tag on what the Russians are doing in Syria, the international community will be running the risk of providing Russia with the time and the opportunity to win the war militarily. To be sure, Moscow believes that talking about a diplomatic solution while simultaneously smashing the rebels is the best strategy to deceive the world of its ulterior objectives. It goes without saying that Russia’s mounting alienation will put it in a bind, but this is not what worries Moscow right now.
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Hassan Barari is a professor of International Relations at Qatar University.
In a blistering condemnation, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Stephan O'Brien, laid the responsibility for the perpetuation of the misery in Aleppo at the Security Council’s door. In particular, he indicted Russia for being behind much of the indiscriminate bombing on eastern Aleppo.
It is as if the report of Stephan O'Brien is not enough, Russia has just lost its bid to become a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council. If anything, the Russian defeat reflects that the continuation of the war in Aleppo cannot go unchecked. Whatever Moscow tries to say, something detonates to prove them wrong. If Russia maintains its disrespectful language toward the UN, it will be in a marked diplomatic bind.
And yet, the Russian leadership is not clueless about their country’s increasing alienation at the international forums. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in particular does not seem gob-masked by the mounting criticism directed at his country. He sticks to his gun and insists that there is no option other than keeping on the battle while looking for a diplomatic solution. To be sure, it does not take a genius to figure out the lack of commitment of the Russian leadership to any diplomatic solution that does not guarantee its victory in Syria.
Explicit in Russia’s deeds is contempt to the international community and the UN. Moscow has used its status as a permanent member to the Security Council to torpedo any effort to resolve the Syrian crisis in a way that does not fit into Russia’s overall strategy. Of course, Putin is a rational actor. His moves are based on his conception of the cost-benefit formula. Thus far, Russia has not paid for its killing of Syrians. As long as Putin is having a free ride in Syria, he is most likely not going to budge.
This time around the great powers who claim to support the right of the Syrian people to self-determination should realize that working within the Security Council is a recipe for paralysis. Put differently, no matter what the Security Council is up to, Russia can always cast a veto thus nipping in the bud any positive initiative. Unlike countries that respect human rights and are sensitive to killing civilians, Russia is by no means forthcoming. Its leaders do not value human lives. Hence, there is a need to come up with a scheme outside the Security Council to pull the rug out from under the feet of Russia.
All along its recent history, Russia has proved resilient as long as it does not pay a cost. Therefore, short of placing a price tag on what the Russians are doing in Syria, the international community will be running the risk of providing Russia with the time and the opportunity to win the war militarily. To be sure, Moscow believes that talking about a diplomatic solution while simultaneously smashing the rebels is the best strategy to deceive the world of its ulterior objectives. It goes without saying that Russia’s mounting alienation will put it in a bind, but this is not what worries Moscow right now.
—
Hassan Barari is a professor of International Relations at Qatar University.
