Russia's stubborn policy on Syria that has irked opponents of President Bashar Assad remains unchanged, and suggestions to the contrary may reflect wishful thinking on the part of the West, analysts said on Friday.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said this week that the Syrian regime “is losing more and more control,” leading the United States to proclaim that Moscow was “finally waking up to the reality.” Russia however quickly played down Bogdanov’s remarks and acidly retorted Friday that “we were never sleeping to begin with,” telling the West not to expect Moscow to cave in to pressure. While analysts admitted that by issuing mixed messages Russia may be seeking to maneuver the ongoing negotiations on the Syrian conflict in a particular direction, they said Moscow was in no hurry to announce a major policy shift.
“There is no need to sound the alarm and speak of a change in the position,” said Alexei Sarabyev, a Middle East expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank with links to the government. “The central line remains the same.”
Boris Dolgov, an analyst at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said the West, keen to see Assad go might, might have read too much into the tealeaves. “The West is trying to see the change in a position where there is not any,” Dolgov said.
“The West is seeking to have Russia change its stance and is putting pressure on it.” Moscow has been seen by the West as a staunch ally of Assad’s regime since opposition rebels first launched their bid to topple him in March 2011. With China, it has vetoed three UN Security Council resolutions, backed by the United States, aimed at imposing sanctions. Russia has refused to turn against Assad’s regime despite the conflict, which according to rights groups has killed 42,000 people since March last year.
It infuriated the West and anti-Assad Arab states by refusing to cut military and other ties with Damascus established during the Soviet era with the president’s father and predecessor Hafez Assad.
But it also surprised the US last week when Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed to join US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in three-way talks with UN peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi in Dublin.
Top-level officials then met over the weekend in Geneva, where they held “constructive talks,” Brahimi said. They discussed ways “to move forward a peaceful process and mobilize greater international action in favor of a political solution to the Syrian crisis.”
Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the Russia in Global Affairs journal, downplayed the significance of Bogdanov’s comments.
Deputy Foreign Minister Bogdanov said at a meeting of the Public Chamber oversight body on Thursday that Assad could lose the conflict with the rebels. It is not clear if Bogdanov — who is also the Kremlin’s special envoy for the Middle East — was aware that his remarks were on the record and would be reported by Russian media.







